Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 61). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Como. Como had 6.1 days of rest, Napoli 7.9 and had to travel 692 km.
Away travel692 kmRest days6.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Como45%
Draw28%
Napoli28%
Como39%
Draw27%
Napoli34%
Como45%
Draw28%
Napoli28%
Como38%
Draw28%
Napoli34%
Como45%
Draw27%
Napoli28%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 72
Team strength
Como
Napoli
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
61
72
AttackIn forecast
61
67
DefenceIn forecast
70
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNapoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoNapoli
1.74
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.53
0.82
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.97
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
76%
Scored inContext
79%
47%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
14.03
ShotsContext
13.09
4.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.03
35%
On target shareContext
36%
9.06
Shots in the boxContext
8.35
64%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.64
OffsidesContext
1.79
8.97
Shots allowedContext
10.12
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.13
3.00
BlocksContext
2.94
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.31
73%
Save rateContext
70%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
521
PassesContext
545
456
Accurate passesContext
475
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.09
FoulsContext
11.50
11.97
Fouls sufferedContext
12.03
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
1.32
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.06
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
0.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.74
+0.63
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.20
ShotsContext
13.50
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.78
35%
On target shareContext
39%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
65%
Box shareContext
62%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.11
8.10
Shots allowedContext
8.20
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
3.11
BlocksContext
2.13
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
69%
Save rateContext
76%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
505
PassesContext
587
445
Accurate passesContext
519
88%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.70
FoulsContext
10.30
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.10
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km313 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Napoli
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel692 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Napoli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Apr | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 692 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 313 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
34Diego Carlos
14Jacobo Ramón
28I. Smolčić
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
20M. Baturina
10N. Paz
38Assane Diao
11A. Douvikas
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
4A. Buongiorno
13A. Rrahmani
31S. Beukema
3Miguel Gutiérrez
8S. McTominay
68S. Lobotka
21M. Politano
27Alisson Santos
11K. De Bruyne
19R. Højlund
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Absences are shown before kick-off
Napoli
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Napoli-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
1.88points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-5-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.88
Napoli · Away
1.71points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-6
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.06
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Como | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Inter | L 3–4 HL 0–4 A | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Udinese | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Pisa | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| AS Roma | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Lecce | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Juventus | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Fiorentina | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Atalanta | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Torino | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Lazio | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | L 0–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Bologna | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Verona | W 3–1 H | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | W 4–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 60 of 99 · 1.82 per game | 68 of 99 · 2.06 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Como wins1 draws1 Napoli wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 1 Nov 2025Napoli0–0Como
- 23 Feb 2025Como2–1Napoli
- 4 Oct 2024Napoli3–1Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.74 | 1.53 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.82 | 0.97 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.50 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 53% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 47% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 21% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Como | Napoli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.60 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.94 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.03 | 2.97 | |
| Match total | 7.03 | 7.91 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 23% 7/31 | 32% 10/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 16% 5/31 | 23% 7/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 4/31 | 23% 7/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.26 | 1.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.32 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 4.58 | 3.29 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 24/34 | 38% 13/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 17/34 | 15% 5/34 | |
| Como | Napoli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.90 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 8.44 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 10% 1/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 2.80 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.70
Red cards0.29league 0.18
Cards 5+35%league 35%
Fouls24.2league 24.8
Penalties0.15league 0.29
Home wins38%league 40%
Como2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W19 Jan 26A · Lazio3–03
- D19 Oct 24H · Parma1–11
Napoli11 with this referee
Record7-4-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W6 Mar 26H · Torino2–10
- D14 Jan 26H · Parma0–01
- W14 Apr 25H · Empoli3–01
- D2 Feb 25A · AS Roma1–11
- W1 Dec 24A · Torino1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como33 games · scored 57 · conceded 27
11
4
0-15
7
2
16-30
8
5
31-45
7
8
46-60
11
4
61-75
13
4
76-90
Napoli34 games · scored 52 · conceded 33
11
7
0-15
6
3
16-30
10
3
31-45
10
8
46-60
6
6
61-75
9
6
76-90
Como10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
4
2
0-15
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
4
4
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
