Como
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Como44.8%fair odds 2.23
Draw27.6%fair odds 3.63
Napoli27.6%fair odds 3.62
Expected goals1.45 – 1.08total 2.53
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Napoli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Como ↓ · Napoli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Como goals, columns Napoli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.61
- 1–010.8%9.22
- 2–19.0%11.07
- 0–08.6%11.62
- 2–08.3%12.00
- 0–18.0%12.58
- 1–26.8%14.78
- 2–24.9%20.41
- 0–24.7%21.41
- 3–14.4%22.92
Winning margin
8.6%
Como by 3+
fair 11.69
13.6%
Como by 2
fair 7.33
22.6%
Como by 1
fair 4.43
27.6%
Draw
fair 3.63
16.7%
Napoli by 1
fair 5.97
7.6%
Napoli by 2
fair 13.08
3.2%
Napoli by 3+
fair 30.86
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
11%5+
Como goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Napoli goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como win | 44.8% | 45.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 27.6% | 27.2% | +0.3 pp |
| Napoli win | 27.6% | 27.8% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.5% | 47.8% | -1.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.3% | 52.4% | -1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Como | 1.45 | 1.48 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Napoli | 1.08 | 1.11 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Como win44.8%2.23
- Draw27.6%3.63
- Napoli win27.6%3.62
- Double chance Como or draw72.4%1.38
- Double chance Como or Napoli72.4%1.38
- Double chance Napoli or draw55.2%1.81
- Draw no bet Como61.9%1.62
- Draw no bet Napoli38.1%2.62
Goals
- Over 0.591.4%1.09
- Over 1.572.6%1.38
- Over 2.546.5%2.15
- Over 3.524.9%4.01
- Over 4.511.3%8.83
- Under 1.527.4%3.65
- Under 2.553.5%1.87
- Under 3.575.1%1.33
Both teams to score
- Yes51.3%1.95
- No48.7%2.05
- Yes and over 2.538.2%2.62
- Como win and yes19.6%5.11
- Draw and yes19.0%5.27
- Napoli win and yes12.7%7.85
Team goals
- Como over 0.576.5%1.31
- Como over 1.542.5%2.35
- Como over 2.517.8%5.61
- Napoli over 0.566.2%1.51
- Napoli over 1.529.5%3.39
- Napoli over 2.59.6%10.37
- Como clean sheet33.8%2.96
- Napoli clean sheet23.5%4.26
- Como win to nil25.2%3.97
- Napoli win to nil14.9%6.72
Handicap
- Como −1.522.2%4.50
- Como −2.58.6%11.69
- Napoli +1.577.8%1.29
- Napoli +2.591.4%1.09
- Napoli −1.510.9%9.18
- Como +1.589.1%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored342
Favourite won51.2%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.594
Over 2.5 called right52.0%
BTTS called right51.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 53 | 37.8% | 32.1% |
| 40–50% | 112 | 45.0% | 49.1% |
| 50–60% | 83 | 54.4% | 45.8% |
| 60–70% | 62 | 64.7% | 69.4% |
| 70–80% | 24 | 73.3% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 82.4% | 75.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 293 of 342 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5943 | 0.5794 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 50.9% | 53.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 293 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 342 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.