Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were clear favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Como. Como had 7 days of rest, Parma 6.8 and had to travel 148 km.
Away travel148 kmRest days7 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Como65%
Draw23%
Parma12%
Como61%
Draw22%
Parma16%
Como64%
Draw23%
Parma13%
Como58%
Draw26%
Parma16%
Como65%
Draw22%
Parma13%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 40
Team strength
Como
Parma
62
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
72
AttackIn forecast
20
67
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoParma
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.75
0.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
75%
Scored inContext
58%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.00
ShotsContext
10.36
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.06
35%
On target shareContext
26%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.06
65%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.80
8.97
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.26
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
3.00
BlocksContext
3.86
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.03
73%
Save rateContext
70%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
520
PassesContext
359
456
Accurate passesContext
291
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.06
FoulsContext
10.47
12.03
Fouls sufferedContext
13.17
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
0.65
0.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
80%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.80
ShotsContext
8.30
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.88
36%
On target shareContext
28%
9.56
Shots in the boxContext
4.60
69%
Box shareContext
54%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.33
8.20
Shots allowedContext
11.80
2.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.20
BlocksContext
2.90
1.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
68%
Save rateContext
68%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
516
PassesContext
369
457
Accurate passesContext
307
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.70
FoulsContext
10.60
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km308 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel148 km232 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 10 May | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 148 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 308 km | 232 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.4 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
18Alberto Moreno
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
77I. Van der Brempt
23M. Perrone
33L. da Cunha
38Assane Diao
20M. Baturina
6M. Caqueret
11A. Douvikas
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
5L. Valenti
37Mariano Troilo
39A. Circati
29F. Carboni
24C. Ordoñez
41H. Nicolussi
16L. Keita
15E. Delprato
7Gabriel Strefezza
9Mateo Pellegrino
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Parma-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
1.83points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-6-3
- Scored
- 1.89
- Conceded
- 0.83
Parma · Away
1.33points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-6-6
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.11
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Como | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Verona | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Napoli | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Genoa | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 3–4 HL 0–4 A | L 0–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Udinese | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Pisa | W 5–0 HW 3–0 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| AS Roma | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Lecce | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Juventus | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Fiorentina | L 1–2 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Atalanta | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–4 AD 1–1 H |
| Torino | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Lazio | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Bologna | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 AL 1–3 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 64 of 105 · 1.83 per game | 41 of 105 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Como wins2 draws0 Parma wins
Goals per game0.67 – 0.33
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 33%
- 25 Oct 2025Parma0–0Como
- 3 May 2025Parma0–1Como
- 19 Oct 2024Como1–1Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 0.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 2.00 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 31% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 42% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Como | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.20 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.06 | 3.94 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.03 | 4.72 | |
| Match total | 7.09 | 8.66 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 24% 8/33 | 50% 16/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 18% 6/33 | 34% 11/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 15% 5/33 | 31% 10/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 1.72 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.28 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.53 | 3.72 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 25/36 | 58% 21/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 17/36 | 33% 12/36 | |
| Como | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 9.33 | 8.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 2/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.20 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.88league 3.69
Red cards0.10league 0.19
Cards 5+28%league 34%
Fouls23.6league 24.7
Penalties0.33league 0.28
Home wins53%league 39%
Como2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D1 Nov 25A · Napoli0–02
- D4 Oct 25A · Atalanta1–13
Parma3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D8 Mar 26A · Fiorentina0–00
- W1 Dec 24H · Lazio3–14
- D30 Oct 24A · Juventus2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como35 games · scored 58 · conceded 27
11
4
0-15
7
2
16-30
8
5
31-45
7
8
46-60
12
4
61-75
13
4
76-90
Parma36 games · scored 27 · conceded 45
4
7
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
8
61-75
9
13
76-90
Como10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
