Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were clear favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Como. Como had 3.9 days of rest, Parma 8.1 and had to travel 148 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel148 kmRest days3.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Como76%
Draw15%
Parma9%
Como68%
Draw19%
Parma13%
Como75%
Draw15%
Parma9%
Como70%
Draw18%
Parma12%
Como75%
Draw16%
Parma9%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
Warm
27°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 52%
Referee · ItalyGiuseppe Mucera
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 3
Team strength
Como
Parma
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
72
AttackIn forecast
20
67
DefenceIn forecast
33
86
Form indexContext
19
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoParma
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.49
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+1.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
100%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
20.33
ShotsContext
8.00
7.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
34%
On target shareContext
33%
11.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
57%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
4%
—
OffsidesContext
1.00
13.67
Shots allowedContext
17.00
2.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
3.33
BlocksContext
2.67
1.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
57%
Save rateContext
75%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
597
PassesContext
397
539
Accurate passesContext
328
90%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.65
7.67
FoulsContext
11.33
9.67
Fouls sufferedContext
19.67
0.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
90%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.00
ShotsContext
8.50
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.67
34%
On target shareContext
28%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.75
67%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.10
Shots allowedContext
14.80
2.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.67
BlocksContext
3.70
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
71%
Save rateContext
76%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
524
PassesContext
348
469
Accurate passesContext
286
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.40
FoulsContext
9.50
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
DWWW
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km313 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 86 · 10 pts vs 4.9 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Sep | 8.1Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 148 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 313 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
97Robert Sánchez(G)
16Kaiki
2M. Kempf
4Jacobo Ramón
27Yan Couto
7L. da Cunha
5M. Perrone
20M. Baturina
10N. Paz
11Assane Diao
90M. Kean
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
15E. Delprato
37Mariano Troilo
34Diego Carlos
14E. Valeri
16L. Keita
4V. Sierro
27Sascha Britschgi
76S. Lontani
19E. Touré
23N. Elphege
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Parma-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
No home games yet this season.
Parma · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Como wins2 draws0 Parma wins
Goals per game0.75 – 0.25
Over 2.50%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 25%
- 17 May 2026Como1–0Parma
- 25 Oct 2025Parma0–0Como
- 3 May 2025Parma0–1Como
- 19 Oct 2024Como1–1Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 1.67 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Como | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 1.80 | 3.27 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 10% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.67 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 8.67 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.33 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.33 | 3.67 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Como | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.90 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.80 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giuseppe Mucera Italy · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.67league 3.19
Red cards0.00league 0.03
Cards 5+0%league 19%
Fouls26.0league 22.6
Penalties0.33league 0.05
Home wins67%league 41%
ComoNo previous matches with this referee.
ParmaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como3 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Parma3 games · scored 1 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Como10 games · scored 20 · conceded 7
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
