Como vs RB Leipzig – 10 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 10 · 20:00 Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

Como

4–1Full time

RB Leipzig

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Como were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on RB Leipzig. Como had 6 days of rest, RB Leipzig 5.2 and had to travel 661 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel661 kmRest days6 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2

Como51%

Draw22%

RB Leipzig27%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.39

Como44%

Draw26%

RB Leipzig30%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.20

Como49%

Draw22%

RB Leipzig29%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.43

Como42%

Draw23%

RB Leipzig35%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.56

Como50%

Draw23%

RB Leipzig28%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.32

Over 2.5 65% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Como)

19°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 89%

Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 109

Team strength

Como

RB Leipzig

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

72 AttackIn forecast 76

67 DefenceIn forecast 53

77 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Como

Attack—

Defense risk—

RB Leipzig

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Como

RB Leipzig

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 2.06

1.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

90% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.90 ShotsContext 16.50

5.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

33% On target shareContext 42%

10.90 Shots in the boxContext 11.90

66% Box shareContext 70%

11% ConversionContext 13%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.17

9.40 Shots allowedContext 11.90

2.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.56 BlocksContext 3.44

1.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

64% Save rateContext 61%

62% PossessionIn forecast 56%

519 PassesContext 497

464 Accurate passesContext 426

89% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.93 Team ratingContext 7.05

10.60 FoulsContext 8.50

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Como DWW

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,697 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

Form 77 · 7 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected

W4 SepA · Genoa4–11.8 xPts
W30 AugA · Napoli2–11.2 xPts
D22 AugA · Udinese1–11.6 xPts

RB Leipzig WL

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel661 km620 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 50 · 3 pts vs 3.0 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected

L5 SepA · Werder Bremen1–32.0 xPts
W29 AugH · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Como	RB Leipzig
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Serie A 2026-2027, 4 Sep	5.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	661 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,697 km	620 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Como Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Butez(G)

3Álex Valle 99T. Chalobah 4Jacobo Ramón 27Yan Couto

6Luis Milla 7L. da Cunha

20M. Baturina 10N. Paz 11Assane Diao

9A. Douvikas

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

RB Leipzig Confirmed XI

4-4-2

26M. Vandevoordt(G)

22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 17R. Baku

7A. Nusa 13N. Seiwald 21N. El Aynaoui 30A. Maksimović

28C. Nkunku 9Marc Guiu

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Como Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

RB Leipzig Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Como+2.2 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
RB Leipzig-1.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Como · Home No home games yet this season.

RB Leipzig · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Como	RB Leipzig	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.35
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	65%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	64%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Como	RB Leipzig	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	2.20
Conceded per game	1.00	1.50
Match goals	2.90	3.70	3.35
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	90%	65%
Over 3.5	30%	60%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	64%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Como	RB Leipzig	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.86
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.07
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Como	RB Leipzig	League
Corners
Corners won	6.20	5.56
Corners conceded	2.60	3.78
Match total	8.80	9.34	8.86
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.50
Opponent cards	2.70	0.70
Match total	4.50	2.20	4.07
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 109 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.88league 4.00

Red cards0.12league 0.07

Cards 5+41%league 36%

Fouls22.9league 24.4

Penalties0.28league 0.21

Home wins49%league 57%

Como

No previous matches with this referee.

RB Leipzig1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L15 Sep 21A · Manchester City3–64

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.