Coventry
Attack—
Defense risk—
Premier League
Gameweek 4 Sun, Sep 13 · 14:00
The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry, West Midlands
Our take
Brighton were slight favourites.
Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 49). Brighton usually keep the ball (63% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Coventry had 8 days of rest, Brighton 8 and had to travel 198 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel198 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Coventry27%
Draw23%
Brighton50%
Coventry27%
Draw25%
Brighton48%
Coventry27%
Draw23%
Brighton50%
Coventry21%
Draw21%
Brighton58%
Coventry27%
Draw24%
Brighton49%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Coventry, West Midlands)
22°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 68%
RefereeTony Harrington
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 87
Team strength
Coventry
Brighton
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
76
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
47
AttackIn forecast
87
59
DefenceIn forecast
85
29
Form indexContext
61
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBrighton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CoventryBrighton
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.67
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
2.46
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
-0.95
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
0%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
9.00
ShotsContext
18.67
2.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.67
26%
On target shareContext
30%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
13.00
52%
Box shareContext
71%
0%
ConversionContext
14%
2.50
OffsidesContext
5.00
13.67
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
7.00
BlocksContext
3.50
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
42%
Save rateContext
36%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
71%
384
PassesContext
605
304
Accurate passesContext
535
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.70
Team ratingContext
7.04
13.67
FoulsContext
12.33
8.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
50%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.20
ShotsContext
15.30
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
29%
On target shareContext
36%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
11.30
64%
Box shareContext
75%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.29
10.50
Shots allowedContext
9.80
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.89
BlocksContext
2.63
1.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
53%
Save rateContext
62%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
466
PassesContext
538
388
Accurate passesContext
463
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.20
FoulsContext
11.60
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Coventry
LLL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km258 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 29 · 0 pts vs 2.6 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Coventry |
Brighton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 8Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 198 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 258 km | 143 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Coventry
Confirmed XI
19C. Rushworth(G)
2E. Pinnock
4B. Thomas
24A. Amenda
3J. Dasilva
6M. Grimes
16O. Onyeka
27M. van Ewijk
10E. Mason-Clark
5J. Rudoni
14T. Awoniyi
Brighton
Confirmed XI
1B. Verbruggen(G)
21O. Boscagli
5L. Dunk
44L. Vušković
24F. Kadıoğlu
26Y. Ayari
13P. Groß
29M. De Cuyper
35M. Yalcouyé
25D. Gómez
19C. Kostoulas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Coventry
Absences are shown before kick-off
Brighton
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Coventry-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Brighton+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Coventry · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Brighton · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Coventry | Brighton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 4.33 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 67% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Coventry | Brighton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 20% | |
| Games | 3 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Coventry | Brighton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.33 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 5.34 | 4.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Coventry | Brighton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 7.22 | 11.00 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.60 | 4.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tony Harrington 87 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.59league 4.03
Red cards0.13league 0.08
Cards 5+28%league 43%
Fouls21.2league 23.4
Penalties0.25league 0.19
Home wins41%league 32%
Coventry2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D15 Sep 23A · Hull City1–15
- L30 Apr 22H · Huddersfield1–21
Brighton6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W16 Jan 25A · Ipswich2–02
- L2 Nov 24A · Liverpool1–21
- D24 Feb 24H · Everton1–13
- L8 Oct 22H · Tottenham0–11
- W4 Sep 22H · Leicester5–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Coventry3 games · scored 0 · conceded 5
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Brighton3 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
1
3
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Coventry10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
7
2
76-90
Brighton10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
4
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
