Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bologna were slight favourites.
Bologna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cremonese. Cremonese had 15 days of rest, Bologna 14 and had to travel 126 km.
Away travel126 kmRest days15 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Cremonese27%
Draw29%
Bologna43%
Cremonese24%
Draw26%
Bologna50%
Cremonese28%
Draw29%
Bologna43%
Cremonese22%
Draw28%
Bologna50%
Cremonese28%
Draw28%
Bologna44%
Over 2.5 40%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyRosario Abisso
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 51
Team strength
Cremonese
Bologna
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
16
AttackIn forecast
35
30
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseBologna
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
53%
Scored inContext
73%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.80
ShotsContext
12.93
3.24
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.79
36%
On target shareContext
28%
5.64
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
59%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.27
OffsidesContext
2.33
16.20
Shots allowedContext
10.00
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
4.76
BlocksContext
2.92
4.03
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
74%
Save rateContext
68%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
368
PassesContext
428
286
Accurate passesContext
354
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.60
FoulsContext
12.77
12.93
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
40%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.70
ShotsContext
12.90
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
32%
On target shareContext
33%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
64%
Box shareContext
65%
5%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.80
15.80
Shots allowedContext
9.70
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
4.60
BlocksContext
3.11
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
69%
Save rateContext
64%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
360
PassesContext
422
277
Accurate passesContext
338
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.89
15.10
FoulsContext
13.20
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bologna
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel126 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 14Serie A 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 126 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
3G. Pezzella
5S. Luperto
15M. Bianchetti
24F. Terracciano
33A. Grassi
29Y. Maleh
27J. Vandeputte
7A. Zerbin
9M. Đurić
90F. Bonazzoli
Bologna
Confirmed XI
13F. Ravaglia(G)
33Juan Miranda
26J. Lucumí
41M. Vitík
17João Mário
8R. Freuler
11J. Rowe
23S. Sohm
6N. Moro
10F. Bernardeschi
9S. Castro
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bologna
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Bologna+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
0.86points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-6-6
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.50
Bologna · Away
1.67points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-4
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Parma | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Fiorentina | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Lecce | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | L 0–3 HL 0–1 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Genoa | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A | L 1–3 A |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 AW 3–2 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Verona | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A |
| Juventus | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Cagliari | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Lazio | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Torino | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Pisa | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Udinese | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Como | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 24 of 87 · 0.83 per game | 42 of 87 · 1.45 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Cremonese wins1 draws1 Bologna wins
Goals per game1.67 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 1 Dec 2025Bologna1–3Cremonese
- 20 May 2023Cremonese1–5Bologna
- 23 Jan 2023Bologna1–1Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.47 | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 47% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 47% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 47% | 27% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Cremonese | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 4.31 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.45 | 4.28 | |
| Match total | 9.83 | 8.59 | 8.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 66% 19/29 | 48% 14/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 45% 13/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 8/29 | 31% 9/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.03 | 2.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.47 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.17 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 12/30 | 57% 17/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 7/30 | 47% 14/30 | |
| Cremonese | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.80 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.50 | 8.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.70 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rosario Abisso Italy · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.75
Red cards0.29league 0.19
Cards 5+49%league 35%
Fouls24.7league 25.1
Penalties0.33league 0.30
Home wins29%league 40%
Cremonese2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W29 Oct 25A · Genoa2–01
- L9 Oct 22H · Napoli1–42
Bologna7 with this referee
Record2-3-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- D10 Jan 26A · Como1–14
- W5 Oct 25H · Pisa4–00
- L22 Feb 25A · Parma0–21
- D12 Jan 25H · AS Roma2–24
- W23 Feb 24H · Verona2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese30 games · scored 25 · conceded 44
3
7
0-15
2
6
16-30
4
9
31-45
6
7
46-60
3
8
61-75
7
7
76-90
Bologna30 games · scored 38 · conceded 36
1
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
8
7
31-45
11
7
46-60
6
10
61-75
7
7
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
