Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Genoa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 21). Cremonese had 5.9 days of rest, Genoa 7.9 and had to travel 117 km.
Away travel117 kmRest days5.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Cremonese34%
Draw29%
Genoa37%
Cremonese35%
Draw27%
Genoa38%
Cremonese34%
Draw29%
Genoa37%
Cremonese27%
Draw28%
Genoa44%
Cremonese34%
Draw27%
Genoa38%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalySimone Sozza
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.47
- Matches 87
Team strength
Cremonese
Genoa
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
16
AttackIn forecast
23
30
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseGenoa
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.21
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
54%
Scored inContext
71%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
8.54
ShotsContext
10.79
3.04
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
36%
On target shareContext
36%
5.09
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
57%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.46
Shots allowedContext
13.33
5.54
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.68
4.87
BlocksContext
4.95
4.39
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.09
77%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
374
PassesContext
356
292
Accurate passesContext
283
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.08
FoulsContext
13.54
12.58
Fouls sufferedContext
14.83
2.04
Yellow cardsContext
2.08
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
20%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.90
ShotsContext
9.80
2.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
29%
On target shareContext
38%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.22
54%
Box shareContext
61%
3%
ConversionContext
14%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.56
17.50
Shots allowedContext
16.20
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
5.50
BlocksContext
6.00
4.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
75%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
389
PassesContext
345
307
Accurate passesContext
276
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.84
14.50
FoulsContext
12.50
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km137 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genoa
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel117 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 9 Feb | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 117 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 137 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
5S. Luperto
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
32M. Payero
29Y. Maleh
2M. Thorsby
7A. Zerbin
10J. Vardy
9M. Đurić
Genoa
Confirmed XI
16J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
77M. Ellertsson
17R. Malinovskyi
32M. Frendrup
15B. Norton-Cuffy
9Vítinha
10J. Messias
29L. Colombo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Genoa+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
1.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.36
Genoa · Away
0.91points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-5
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A | L 1–2 H |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 AW 3–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Verona | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Juventus | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Cagliari | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Fiorentina | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 A | L 2–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Torino | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Lecce | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Bologna | W 3–1 A | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 1–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Pisa | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Udinese | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Como | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| AC Milan | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 20 of 69 · 0.87 per game | 23 of 69 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Cremonese wins0 draws0 Genoa wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 29 Oct 2025Genoa0–2Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 1.21 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 2.75 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 63% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 67% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 46% | 29% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Cremonese | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 80% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.39 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 9.69 | 8.80 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 15/23 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 9/23 | 40% 8/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 6/23 | 15% 3/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 2.54 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 4.71 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 11/24 | 88% 21/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 6/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Cremonese | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.11 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.56 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 8.90 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 87 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.30league 3.83
Red cards0.15league 0.19
Cards 5+44%league 37%
Fouls24.8league 25.5
Penalties0.47league 0.32
Home wins39%league 38%
CremoneseNo previous matches with this referee.
Genoa4 with this referee
Record1-3-0
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against3 · 2
- D19 Oct 25H · Parma0–02
- D24 Nov 24H · Cagliari2–22
- W6 May 22H · Juventus2–12
- D26 Oct 21A · Spezia1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese24 games · scored 21 · conceded 33
3
7
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
7
61-75
7
3
76-90
Genoa24 games · scored 29 · conceded 37
5
5
0-15
3
6
16-30
4
6
31-45
2
7
46-60
7
7
61-75
8
6
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 3 · conceded 16
1
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
3
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
