Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Cremonese were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Pisa. Cremonese had 5.9 days of rest, Pisa 8.8 and had to travel 161 km.
Away travel161 kmRest days5.9 · 8.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cremonese43%
Draw29%
Pisa28%
Cremonese50%
Draw26%
Pisa25%
Cremonese44%
Draw29%
Pisa27%
Cremonese36%
Draw30%
Pisa34%
Cremonese44%
Draw27%
Pisa28%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGiovanni Ayroldi
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 51
Team strength
Cremonese
Pisa
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
16
AttackIn forecast
15
30
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPisa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremonesePisa
0.77
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
1.51
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.28
51%
Scored inContext
46%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
8.77
ShotsContext
9.80
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
37%
On target shareContext
29%
5.52
Shots in the boxContext
7.31
59%
Box shareContext
70%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
2.12
OffsidesContext
2.11
15.57
Shots allowedContext
14.26
5.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.44
BlocksContext
4.03
3.91
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
73%
Save rateContext
66%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
372
PassesContext
319
293
Accurate passesContext
245
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.43
FoulsContext
13.06
12.54
Fouls sufferedContext
11.46
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.09
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
0.68
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.48
50%
Scored inContext
30%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.60
ShotsContext
8.80
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.29
36%
On target shareContext
34%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
65%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
6%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.67
13.10
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.30
BlocksContext
3.70
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
59%
Save rateContext
61%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
381
PassesContext
343
308
Accurate passesContext
270
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.65
14.60
FoulsContext
13.50
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Pisa
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel161 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Pisa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 4 May | 8.8Serie A 2025-2026, 1 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 161 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
3G. Pezzella
5S. Luperto
15M. Bianchetti
24F. Terracciano
27J. Vandeputte
29Y. Maleh
33A. Grassi
4T. Barbieri
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
Pisa
Confirmed XI
1A. Šemper(G)
2R. Bozhinov
4A. Caracciolo
5S. Canestrelli
7M. Léris
21İ. Vural
35Felipe Loyola
14E. Akinsanmiro
15I. Touré
81F. Stojilković
32S. Moreo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Pisa
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Pisa+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
0.76points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-7-8
- Scored
- 0.82
- Conceded
- 1.47
Pisa · Away
0.47points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-8-9
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 2.35
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Napoli | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Torino | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Cagliari | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Bologna | L 1–2 HW 3–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Fiorentina | L 1–4 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 AD 0–0 H |
| Lecce | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| AC Milan | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H | L 0–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Genoa | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A | L 2–6 AL 0–2 H |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 AW 3–2 H | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| Verona | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Juventus | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H | L 0–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Udinese | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Como | D 1–1 A | L 0–5 AL 0–3 H |
| Points | 28 of 102 · 0.82 per game | 15 of 102 · 0.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Cremonese wins0 draws1 Pisa wins
Goals per game0.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 7 Nov 2025Pisa1–0Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.77 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.51 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.51 | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 49% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 49% | 54% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Cremonese | Pisa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 3.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.24 | 4.76 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 8.47 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 20/33 | 47% 16/34 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 14/33 | 41% 14/34 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 9/33 | 29% 10/34 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.89 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.51 | 1.69 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.86 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 37% 13/35 | 60% 21/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 8/35 | 34% 12/35 | |
| Cremonese | Pisa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.11 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 7.50 | 8.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.60 | 3.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Giovanni Ayroldi Italy · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.43league 3.70
Red cards0.27league 0.18
Cards 5+76%league 34%
Fouls27.9league 24.8
Penalties0.16league 0.28
Home wins37%league 39%
Cremonese2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 Nov 25H · AS Roma1–32
- L4 Jan 23H · Juventus0–15
Pisa1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D10 Jan 26A · Udinese2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese35 games · scored 27 · conceded 53
3
9
0-15
3
7
16-30
4
11
31-45
6
9
46-60
3
9
61-75
8
8
76-90
Pisa35 games · scored 25 · conceded 63
5
7
0-15
4
4
16-30
2
14
31-45
6
10
46-60
3
11
61-75
5
17
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 6 · conceded 20
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Pisa10 games · scored 5 · conceded 21
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
5
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
