Cremonese vs Sassuolo – 29 Aug 2025

Serie A Gameweek 2 Fri, Aug 29 · 17:30 Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona

Cremonese 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

3–2Full time

Sassuolo 19th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Cremonese were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Cremonese had 5.9 days of rest, Sassuolo 6 and had to travel 68 km.

Away travel68 kmRest days5.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Cremonese41%

Draw28%

Sassuolo31%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.13

Cremonese41%

Draw27%

Sassuolo32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.23

Cremonese41%

Draw28%

Sassuolo31%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.13

Cremonese34%

Draw29%

Sassuolo38%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.27

Cremonese41%

Draw27%

Sassuolo32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.23

Over 2.5 45% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cremona)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMarco Guida

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 61

Team strength

Cremonese

Sassuolo

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

16 AttackIn forecast 41

30 DefenceIn forecast 32

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cremonese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sassuolo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Cremonese

Sassuolo

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

80% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

9.60 ShotsContext 9.70

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

35% On target shareContext 32%

7.13 Shots in the boxContext 6.10

63% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 10%

2.13 OffsidesContext 1.67

17.00 Shots allowedContext 13.20

5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

4.50 BlocksContext 3.70

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

68% Save rateContext 55%

38% PossessionIn forecast 41%

341 PassesContext 344

266 Accurate passesContext 262

78% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.76

10.10 FoulsContext 11.30

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cremonese

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km149 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sassuolo

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel68 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Cremonese	Sassuolo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Aug	6Serie A 2025-2026, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	68 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	149 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	17	16

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cremonese Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1E. Audero(G)

15M. Bianchetti 6F. Baschirotto 24F. Terracciano

3G. Pezzella 27J. Vandeputte 38W. Bondo 18M. Collocolo 7A. Zerbin

99A. Sanabria 20F. Vázquez

Sassuolo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

49A. Murić(G)

3J. Doig 80T. Muharemović 21J. Idzes 6S. Walukiewicz

11D. Boloca 18N. Matić 40A. Vranckx

45A. Laurienté 99A. Pinamonti 10D. Berardi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Cremonese Absences are shown before kick-off

Sassuolo Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Cremonese+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sassuolo+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Cremonese · Home No home games yet this season.

Sassuolo · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Cremonese wins1 draws1 Sassuolo wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 50%

6 Mar 2023Sassuolo3–2Cremonese
4 Sep 2022Cremonese0–0Sassuolo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Cremonese	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	2.47
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	45%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Cremonese	Sassuolo	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	2.47
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	45%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	51%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Cremonese	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	1.00
Corners conceded	7.00	2.00
Match total	9.00	3.00	8.33
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	4.00	3.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	5.00	4.00	3.89
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	Cremonese	Sassuolo	League
Corners
Corners won	3.63	5.00
Corners conceded	6.88	4.60
Match total	10.51	9.60	8.33
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.20
Opponent cards	1.30	1.70
Match total	3.00	3.90	3.89
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 61 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.10league 3.80

Red cards0.15league 0.20

Cards 5+41%league 60%

Fouls24.1league 24.9

Penalties0.34league 0.00

Home wins44%league 40%

Cremonese1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W6 May 23H · Spezia2–00

Sassuolo2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds1

L22 Dec 23H · Genoa1–22
D13 Feb 22H · AS Roma2–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.