Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan – 17 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 17 · 20:00 Selhurst Park, London

Crystal Palace

4–0Full time

Lech Poznan

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Crystal Palace were slight favourites.

Crystal Palace were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 37). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lech Poznan. Crystal Palace had 5.2 days of rest, Lech Poznan 21 and had to travel 1,170 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,170 kmRest days5.2 · 21Matches / 14d2 · 0

Crystal Palace57%

Draw21%

Lech Poznan22%

Expected goals 2.07 – 1.22

Crystal Palace60%

Draw22%

Lech Poznan18%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.94

Crystal Palace57%

Draw21%

Lech Poznan22%

Expected goals 2.07 – 1.20

Crystal Palace49%

Draw23%

Lech Poznan29%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.37

Crystal Palace58%

Draw21%

Lech Poznan22%

Expected goals 2.08 – 1.20

Over 2.5 64% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

18°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 48%

RefereeMichal Očenáš

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 10

Team strength

Crystal Palace

Lech Poznan

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

64 AttackIn forecast 35

54 DefenceIn forecast 23

40 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Crystal Palace

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lech Poznan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Crystal Palace

Lech Poznan

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.49

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext +1.11

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.40 ShotsContext 17.57

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.43

35% On target shareContext 37%

8.75 Shots in the boxContext 11.83

70% Box shareContext 66%

12% ConversionContext 13%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.25

15.60 Shots allowedContext 10.57

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.14

3.80 BlocksContext 2.70

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

62% Save rateContext 57%

41% PossessionIn forecast 58%

363 PassesContext 470

289 Accurate passesContext 394

79% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.88

8.60 FoulsContext 10.20

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Crystal Palace LLWL

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 40 · 3 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · -2.4 vs expected

L12 SepH · Ipswich2–32.0 xPts
W5 SepA · Fulham3–21.2 xPts
L28 AugH · Manchester City1–41.0 xPts
L22 AugA · Everton0–21.2 xPts

Lech Poznan

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,170 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Crystal Palace	Lech Poznan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep	21UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 27 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,170 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	27.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Crystal Palace Confirmed XI

3-4-3

44W. Benítez(G)

21H. Ahanor 5A. Disasi 26Chris Richards

3T. Mitchell 20A. Wharton 23Q. Timber 25A. Khalaili

10Yeremy Pino 22J. Strand Larsen 18Daichi Kamada

+11 more reported missing outside this XI

Lech Poznan Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Lis(G)

15M. Gurgul 59T. Yegbe 27W. Mońka 2Joel Pereira

21Pablo Rodríguez 22R. Murawski

77L. Palma 17A. Sayyadmanesh 10J. Wålemark

9M. Ishak

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Crystal Palace Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lech Poznan Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Crystal Palace-0.7 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Lech Poznan+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Crystal Palace · Home No home games yet this season.

Lech Poznan · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Crystal Palace	Lech Poznan	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.29
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	64%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	62%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Crystal Palace	Lech Poznan	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	3.17
Conceded per game	2.60	1.00
Match goals	3.80	4.17	3.29
Over 1.5	100%	83%
Over 2.5	90%	83%	64%
Over 3.5	60%	67%
Both teams scored	70%	33%	62%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	30%	17%
Games	10	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Crystal Palace	Lech Poznan	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.70
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.10
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Crystal Palace	Lech Poznan	League
Corners
Corners won	3.33	6.70
Corners conceded	6.00	4.10
Match total	9.33	10.80	10.70
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.60
Opponent cards	1.60	2.50
Match total	2.80	4.10	3.10
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michal Očenáš 10 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 3.27

Red cards0.00league 0.00

Cards 5+50%league 45%

Fouls25.6league 25.0

Penalties0.20league 0.09

Home wins30%league 45%

Crystal Palace

No previous matches with this referee.

Lech Poznan

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.