Crystal Palace
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Crystal Palace56.3%fair odds 1.78
Draw22.1%fair odds 4.53
Lech Poznan21.6%fair odds 4.63
Expected goals2.07 – 1.22total 3.29
Likeliest score1–19.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lech Poznan
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Crystal Palace ↓ · Lech Poznan → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Crystal Palace goals, columns Lech Poznan goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–19.9%10.07
- 2–19.7%10.27
- 2–08.0%12.55
- 1–07.2%13.85
- 3–16.7%14.92
- 2–25.9%16.82
- 1–25.8%17.36
- 3–05.5%18.22
- 0–04.2%23.60
- 3–24.1%24.43
Winning margin
17.1%
Crystal Palace by 3+
fair 5.85
17.2%
Crystal Palace by 2
fair 5.82
22.0%
Crystal Palace by 1
fair 4.54
22.1%
Draw
fair 4.53
12.8%
Lech Poznan by 1
fair 7.80
6.0%
Lech Poznan by 2
fair 16.64
2.8%
Lech Poznan by 3+
fair 35.97
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+
Crystal Palace goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
15%4+
Lech Poznan goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 56.3% | 57.1% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 22.1% | 21.9% | +0.1 pp |
| Lech Poznan win | 21.6% | 21.0% | +0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.8% | 63.6% | +0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.1% | 61.7% | +0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Crystal Palace | 2.07 | 2.08 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Lech Poznan | 1.22 | 1.20 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Crystal Palace win56.3%1.78
- Draw22.1%4.53
- Lech Poznan win21.6%4.63
- Double chance Crystal Palace or draw78.4%1.28
- Double chance Crystal Palace or Lech Poznan77.9%1.28
- Double chance Lech Poznan or draw43.7%2.29
- Draw no bet Crystal Palace72.3%1.38
- Draw no bet Lech Poznan27.7%3.61
Goals
- Over 0.595.8%1.04
- Over 1.584.5%1.18
- Over 2.563.8%1.57
- Over 3.541.7%2.40
- Over 4.523.5%4.26
- Under 1.515.5%6.44
- Under 2.536.2%2.76
- Under 3.558.3%1.71
Both teams to score
- Yes62.1%1.61
- No37.9%2.64
- Yes and over 2.552.2%1.92
- Crystal Palace win and yes31.1%3.22
- Draw and yes17.8%5.61
- Lech Poznan win and yes13.2%7.59
Team goals
- Crystal Palace over 0.587.3%1.15
- Crystal Palace over 1.561.1%1.64
- Crystal Palace over 2.534.1%2.93
- Lech Poznan over 0.570.5%1.42
- Lech Poznan over 1.534.5%2.90
- Lech Poznan over 2.512.5%7.99
- Crystal Palace clean sheet29.5%3.39
- Lech Poznan clean sheet12.7%7.89
- Crystal Palace win to nil25.2%3.96
- Lech Poznan win to nil8.4%11.85
Handicap
- Crystal Palace −1.534.3%2.92
- Crystal Palace −2.517.1%5.85
- Lech Poznan +1.565.7%1.52
- Lech Poznan +2.582.9%1.21
- Lech Poznan −1.58.8%11.38
- Crystal Palace +1.591.2%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored11
Favourite won54.5%
Avg chance given to result43.8%
1X2 Brier0.531
Over 2.5 called right36.4%
BTTS called right27.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 39.4% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 3 | 43.7% | 66.7% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 54.9% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 63.5% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 11 of 11 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5313 | 0.5794 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 43.8% |
| Favourite won | 54.5% | 54.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 11 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗OFI 2–0 1899 Hoffenheim21·21·58
- ✓Levski Sofia 0–1 Red Bull Salzburg33·25·42
- ✓Sunderland 1–0 AZ Alkmaar48·24·28
- ✗Sturm Graz 0–0 Rennes36·24·40
- ✗Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–0 Dinamo Zagreb40·23·37
- ✗Anderlecht 1–2 Lyon40·25·35
- ✓Olympiakos Piraeus 2–1 Jagiellonia63·20·17
- ✓AC Milan 0–2 Benfica27·23·51
- ✓Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 Celje82·11·7
- ✓Ararat-Armenia 1–4 Sparta Praha21·22·56
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 11 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.