Dender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Dender were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Dender had ? days of rest, Cercle Brugge ? and had to travel 70 km.
Away travel70 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Dender44%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge29%
Dender44%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge29%
Dender44%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge29%
Dender37%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge36%
Dender44%
Draw27%
Cercle Brugge29%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Denderleeuw)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichiel Allaerts
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 4
Team strength
Dender
Cercle Brugge
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
15
AttackIn forecast
24
15
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
DenderCercle Brugge
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
—
Scored inContext
80%
—
Clean sheetsContext
30%
—
ShotsContext
14.13
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.38
—
On target shareContext
45%
—
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
—
Box shareContext
74%
—
ConversionContext
14%
—
OffsidesContext
2.40
—
Shots allowedContext
12.50
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
—
BlocksContext
3.71
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
—
Save rateContext
60%
—
PossessionIn forecast
45%
—
PassesContext
310
—
Accurate passesContext
205
—
Pass accuracyContext
66%
—
Team ratingContext
7.09
—
FoulsContext
12.75
—
Fouls sufferedContext
12.63
—
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
—
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dender
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel70 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dender |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 70 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Dender
Confirmed XI
34M. Verrips(G)
3J. Pupe
21K. Cools
5L. Marijnissen
24M. Viltard
88F. Ferraro
18N. Rôdes
17N. Mbamba
20D. Hrnčár
16R. Květ
11A. Scheidler
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
3E. Utkus
66C. Ravych
15G. Magnée
18P. Gerkens
28H. Van der Bruggen
19Makaya Ibrahima Diaby
6L. Agyekum
11A. Minda
9S. Ngoura
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Dender+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Dender · Home
No home games yet this season.
Cercle Brugge · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Dender | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 54% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Dender | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 54% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dender | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 7.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 6.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Dender | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | 6.38 | |
| Corners conceded | — | 3.75 | |
| Match total | — | 10.13 | 7.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | — | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | — | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | — | 2.30 | |
| Match total | — | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | — | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michiel Allaerts 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 6.00
Red cards0.00league 0.00
Cards 5+25%league 100%
Fouls22.8league 25.0
Penalties0.00league 0.00
Home wins75%league 0%
DenderNo previous matches with this referee.
Cercle Brugge1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Nov 23H · AS Eupen2–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
DenderCercle BruggeDenderCercle Brugge10 games · scored 23 · conceded 15
5
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
