Dender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
RAAL La Louvière were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 20). Dender usually keep the ball (46% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Dender had 8.9 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 8.1 and had to travel 45 km.
Away travel45 kmRest days8.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Dender38%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière34%
Dender38%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière35%
Dender38%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière34%
Dender31%
Draw28%
RAAL La Louvière41%
Dender38%
Draw27%
RAAL La Louvière35%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Denderleeuw)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Letellier
- Cards per match 1.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Dender
RAAL La Louvière
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
15
AttackIn forecast
15
15
DefenceIn forecast
15
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
DenderRAAL La Louvière
0.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
0.62
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
25%
Scored inContext
63%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
8.00
ShotsContext
9.50
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.63
31%
On target shareContext
28%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
69%
Box shareContext
65%
3%
ConversionContext
9%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.88
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.13
3.13
BlocksContext
3.13
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
67%
Save rateContext
81%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
34%
410
PassesContext
254
315
Accurate passesContext
173
77%
Pass accuracyContext
68%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.77
8.88
FoulsContext
12.38
12.38
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
0.62
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
25%
Scored inContext
63%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
8.00
ShotsContext
9.50
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.63
31%
On target shareContext
28%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
69%
Box shareContext
65%
3%
ConversionContext
9%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.88
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.13
3.13
BlocksContext
3.13
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
67%
Save rateContext
81%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
34%
410
PassesContext
254
315
Accurate passesContext
173
77%
Pass accuracyContext
68%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.77
8.88
FoulsContext
12.38
12.38
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dender
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km62 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RAAL La Louvière
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel45 km110 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dender |
RAAL La Louvière |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 19 Sep | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 45 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 62 km | 110 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Dender
Confirmed XI
34M. Verrips(G)
88F. Ferraro
44L. De Fougerolles
21K. Cools
5L. Marijnissen
22B. Fredrick
24M. Viltard
16R. Květ
17N. Mbamba
77B. Nsimba
90Mohamed Berte
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
25D. Lamego
99Y. Okou
4Wagane Faye
15S. Lahssaini
5T. Lutonda
23J. Ito
98Owen Maes
11J. Liongola
22J. Afriyie
29O. Mendy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Dender+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Dender · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
RAAL La Louvière · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Dender | RAAL La Louvière |
|---|---|---|
| Gent | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Charleroi | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Standard Liege | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 18 · 0.17 per game | 7 of 18 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Dender | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.25 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 38% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 38% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Dender | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.25 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 38% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 13% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 38% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 38% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dender | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 3.38 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 7.38 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 13% 1/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.13 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.38 | |
| Match total | 2.88 | 3.01 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Dender | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 3.38 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 7.38 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 13% 1/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.13 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.38 | |
| Match total | 2.88 | 3.01 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Letellier 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards1.00league 3.90
Red cards0.00league 0.23
Cards 5+0%league 44%
Fouls26.0league 22.9
Penalties0.00league 0.31
Home wins100%league 41%
DenderNo previous matches with this referee.
RAAL La LouvièreNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Dender8 games · scored 2 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
RAAL La Louvière8 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Dender8 games · scored 2 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
RAAL La Louvière8 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
