Deportivo La Coruna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Deportivo La Coruna were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Deportivo La Coruna had 3 days of rest, Sevilla 4.9 and had to travel 697 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel697 kmRest days3 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Deportivo La Coruna44%
Draw26%
Sevilla30%
Deportivo La Coruna44%
Draw26%
Sevilla31%
Deportivo La Coruna44%
Draw26%
Sevilla30%
Deportivo La Coruna37%
Draw27%
Sevilla37%
Deportivo La Coruna44%
Draw26%
Sevilla30%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (La Coruña)
19°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 21 km/h
- Humidity 70%
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 143
Team strength
Deportivo La Coruna
Sevilla
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
40
AttackIn forecast
48
57
DefenceIn forecast
57
72
Form indexContext
79
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Deportivo La CorunaSevilla
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.89
Goals minus xGContext
+0.61
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.60
ShotsContext
11.80
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
40%
On target shareContext
34%
5.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
67%
Box shareContext
60%
21%
ConversionContext
14%
1.40
OffsidesContext
1.80
13.60
Shots allowedContext
10.20
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
3.40
BlocksContext
2.75
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
76%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
438
PassesContext
327
368
Accurate passesContext
249
84%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.20
FoulsContext
15.00
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.40
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.94
+0.64
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
100%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.70
ShotsContext
13.30
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
41%
On target shareContext
32%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
73%
Box shareContext
55%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.00
Shots allowedContext
9.40
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.10
BlocksContext
2.56
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
79%
Save rateContext
63%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
430
PassesContext
352
366
Accurate passesContext
279
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.30
FoulsContext
15.40
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Deportivo La Coruna
DDWWD
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,605 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 72 · 9 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · +3.2 vs expected
Sevilla
WWLDW
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel697 km1,641 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · +3.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Deportivo La Coruna |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3La Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 4.9La Liga 2026-2027, 11 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 697 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,605 km | 1,641 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Deportivo La Coruna
Confirmed XI
13Leo Román(G)
17Angeliño
15Miguel Loureiro
20J. Giménez
2Adrià Alti
10Peke
16L. Amatucci
14Riki Rodríguez
19Luismi Cruz
7P. Aubameyang
32B. Nsongo
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
5A. López Gallo
2Juan Iglesias
24Y. Fofana
6L. Agoumé
20Félix Correia
18Jon Guridi
30Miguel Sierra
19L. Stassin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Deportivo La Coruna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sevilla
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Deportivo La Coruna+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sevilla-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Deportivo La Coruna · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sevilla · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Deportivo La Coruna | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Deportivo La Coruna | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.80 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 80% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Deportivo La Coruna | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 7.40 | 10.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 3.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 6.00 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Deportivo La Coruna | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 7.50 | 10.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.20 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 143 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.05league 4.19
Red cards0.26league 0.24
Cards 5+59%league 48%
Fouls24.9league 24.5
Penalties0.32league 0.31
Home wins43%league 44%
Deportivo La CorunaNo previous matches with this referee.
Sevilla16 with this referee
Record5-4-7
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.9
Pens for · against3 · 2
Reds1
- L5 Apr 26A · Oviedo0–14
- L1 Nov 25A · Atletico Madrid0–33
- D4 May 25H · Leganes2–24
- L9 Feb 25H · Barcelona1–45
- W22 Apr 24H · Mallorca2–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Deportivo La Coruna5 games · scored 9 · conceded 6
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Sevilla5 games · scored 8 · conceded 6
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Deportivo La Coruna10 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
