Elche vs Athletic Club – 19 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 9 Sun, Oct 19 · 13:00 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

Elche 8th · 13 pts · 8 played DWDWL

0–0Full time

Athletic Club 9th · 13 pts · 8 played LLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Athletic Club were slight favourites.

Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 40). Elche had 14 days of rest, Athletic Club 14.8 and had to travel 587 km.

Away travel587 kmRest days14 · 14.8Matches / 14d1 · 0

Elche29%

Draw27%

Athletic Club45%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.50

Elche28%

Draw27%

Athletic Club45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.53

Elche29%

Draw27%

Athletic Club44%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.46

Elche23%

Draw25%

Athletic Club52%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.68

Elche28%

Draw26%

Athletic Club45%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.57

Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Elche)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla

Cards per match 5.5
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 4

Team strength

Elche

Athletic Club

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

39 AttackIn forecast 51

51 DefenceIn forecast 64

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Elche

Athletic Club

1.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.46

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.70

+0.24 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

100% Scored inContext 63%

25% Clean sheetsContext 13%

10.38 ShotsContext 14.13

3.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.38

37% On target shareContext 31%

7.25 Shots in the boxContext 9.13

65% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.33

12.00 Shots allowedContext 8.50

3.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.25

4.00 BlocksContext 2.17

2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

67% Save rateContext 69%

58% PossessionIn forecast 53%

523 PassesContext 450

459 Accurate passesContext 377

88% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.79

11.88 FoulsContext 12.75

16.88 Fouls sufferedContext 13.25

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.25 Red cardsContext 0.25

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.30

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.77

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext -0.30

100% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.10 ShotsContext 13.00

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

38% On target shareContext 31%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

67% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 8%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.75

13.70 Shots allowedContext 9.10

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

4.60 BlocksContext 2.00

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

71% Save rateContext 67%

57% PossessionIn forecast 51%

498 PassesContext 436

429 Accurate passesContext 362

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.72

12.30 FoulsContext 13.30

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Elche

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,073 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Athletic Club

Rest14.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel587 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Elche	Athletic Club
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct	14.8La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	587 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,073 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Elche Confirmed XI

3-5-2

13Iñaki Peña(G)

21L. Pétrot 6Bigas 23Víctor Chust

11Germán Valera 8Marc Aguado 14Aleix Febas 16Martim Neto 15Alvaro Núñez

10Rafa Mir 9André Silva

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 14A. Laporte 3Dani Vivian 12Jesús Areso

16Ruíz de Galarreta 18Mikel Jauregizar

23Robert Navarro 8Oihan Sancet 7Álex Berenguer

11Gorka Guruzeta

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Elche Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Athletic Club Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Elche+0.0 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Athletic Club+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Elche · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Athletic Club · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Elche	Athletic Club
Alaves	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 H
Sevilla	D 2–2 A	W 3–2 H
Real Betis	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 A
Points	2 of 9 · 0.67 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Elche wins1 draws3 Athletic Club wins

Goals per game0.83 – 1.17 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets50% · 33%

28 May 2023Athletic Club0–1Elche
11 Sep 2022Elche1–4Athletic Club
3 Apr 2022Athletic Club2–1Elche
16 Aug 2021Elche0–0Athletic Club
22 May 2021Elche2–0Athletic Club
3 Jan 2021Athletic Club1–0Elche

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Elche	Athletic Club	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.13
Conceded per game	1.13	1.13
Match goals	2.50	2.25	2.65
Over 1.5	88%	63%
Over 2.5	38%	38%	50%
Over 3.5	25%	13%
Both teams scored	75%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	25%	13%
Failed to score	0%	38%
Games	8	8

	Elche	Athletic Club	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.13
Conceded per game	1.13	1.13
Match goals	2.50	2.25	2.65
Over 1.5	88%	63%
Over 2.5	38%	38%	50%
Over 3.5	25%	13%
Both teams scored	75%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	25%	13%
Failed to score	0%	38%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Elche	Athletic Club	League
Corners
Corners won	3.25	6.75
Corners conceded	4.75	3.75
Match total	8.00	10.50	9.84
Over 8.5	38% 3/8	88% 7/8
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.25	1.75
Opponent cards	2.25	2.63
Match total	4.50	4.38	4.29
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	25% 2/8

	Elche	Athletic Club	League
Corners
Corners won	3.60	6.22
Corners conceded	6.10	3.56
Match total	9.70	9.78	9.84
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.70
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	4.50	4.20	4.29
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.25league 4.04

Red cards0.25league 0.27

Cards 5+75%league 44%

Fouls25.3league 24.6

Penalties0.00league 0.31

Home wins25%league 48%

Elche

No previous matches with this referee.

Athletic Club

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.