Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Elche. Elche had 8 days of rest, Barcelona 6.2 and had to travel 425 km.
Away travel425 kmRest days8 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Elche12%
Draw19%
Barcelona69%
Elche12%
Draw19%
Barcelona69%
Elche12%
Draw19%
Barcelona69%
Elche8%
Draw16%
Barcelona76%
Elche12%
Draw19%
Barcelona68%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 34
Team strength
Elche
Barcelona
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
91
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
39
AttackIn forecast
97
51
DefenceIn forecast
92
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheBarcelona
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.71
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.05
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
2.30
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
86%
Scored inContext
100%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
10.48
ShotsContext
19.38
3.85
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.29
35%
On target shareContext
38%
7.19
Shots in the boxContext
12.19
65%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.56
14.10
Shots allowedContext
9.33
4.62
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.81
3.95
BlocksContext
2.78
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
69%
Save rateContext
70%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
513
PassesContext
633
445
Accurate passesContext
566
87%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.09
12.52
FoulsContext
10.00
13.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.95
2.05
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
2.43
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
90%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.30
ShotsContext
19.50
3.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.90
33%
On target shareContext
41%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
12.70
63%
Box shareContext
67%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
2.17
OffsidesContext
1.80
16.40
Shots allowedContext
9.40
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.30
BlocksContext
2.89
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
70%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
71%
502
PassesContext
646
432
Accurate passesContext
575
86%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.96
Team ratingContext
7.11
12.30
FoulsContext
9.60
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km275 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Barcelona
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel425 km803 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Jan | 6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 425 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 275 km | 803 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
13Iñaki Peña(G)
18John Nwankwo
23Víctor Chust
22D. Affengruber
11Germán Valera
8Marc Aguado
30Rodrigo Mendoza
3Adrià Pedrosa
19G. Diangana
9André Silva
20Á. Rodríguez
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
3Alejandro Balde
24Eric García
5Pau Cubarsí
23J. Koundé
20Dani Olmo
21F. de Jong
16Fermín López
11Raphinha
7Ferran Torres
10Lamine Yamal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Barcelona+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
1.82points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-5-1
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 0.91
Barcelona · Away
2.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-3
- Scored
- 2.36
- Conceded
- 1.55
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | L 1–4 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 6–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–3 H | W 2–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | L 1–3 A | W 3–0 A |
| Girona | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Getafe | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Real Madrid | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Athletic Club | D 0–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| Alaves | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 H | W 4–2 A |
| Osasuna | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | W 5–3 A |
| Points | 24 of 60 · 1.20 per game | 49 of 60 · 2.45 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Elche wins0 draws7 Barcelona wins
Goals per game0.57 – 2.86
Over 2.586%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets0% · 57%
- 2 Nov 2025Barcelona3–1Elche
- 1 Apr 2023Elche0–4Barcelona
- 17 Sep 2022Barcelona3–0Elche
- 6 Mar 2022Elche1–2Barcelona
- 18 Dec 2021Barcelona3–2Elche
- 24 Feb 2021Barcelona3–0Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 2.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.05 | |
| Match goals | 2.76 | 3.76 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 81% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 62% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Elche | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 2.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.80 | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 6.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 11.55 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 9/21 | 90% 18/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 6/21 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 19% 4/21 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.19 | 1.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.24 | 2.71 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 4.09 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 16/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 52% 11/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Elche | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 7.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 11.67 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.50 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 4.15
Red cards0.35league 0.27
Cards 5+65%league 46%
Fouls24.9league 24.5
Penalties0.50league 0.36
Home wins56%league 47%
ElcheNo previous matches with this referee.
Barcelona4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L5 Oct 25A · Sevilla1–44
- W3 May 25A · Valladolid2–12
- W24 Feb 24H · Getafe4–01
- W20 Aug 23H · Cadiz2–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche21 games · scored 29 · conceded 29
5
7
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
31-45
8
3
46-60
5
3
61-75
6
13
76-90
Barcelona21 games · scored 57 · conceded 22
11
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
10
8
31-45
10
46-60
10
2
61-75
12
4
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
9
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 28 · conceded 10
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
7
46-60
8
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
