Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Elche were slight favourites.
Espanyol were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Elche. Elche had 8.7 days of rest, Espanyol 7.7 and had to travel 418 km.
Away travel418 kmRest days8.7 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Elche42%
Draw26%
Espanyol33%
Elche37%
Draw27%
Espanyol35%
Elche42%
Draw26%
Espanyol32%
Elche34%
Draw26%
Espanyol40%
Elche41%
Draw25%
Espanyol34%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 13
Team strength
Elche
Espanyol
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
39
AttackIn forecast
36
51
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheEspanyol
1.28
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.24
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.48
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
84%
Scored inContext
80%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
10.40
ShotsContext
12.20
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.08
35%
On target shareContext
33%
7.16
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
65%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.12
14.40
Shots allowedContext
12.12
4.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.48
4.00
BlocksContext
3.54
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.26
68%
Save rateContext
70%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
504
PassesContext
355
434
Accurate passesContext
283
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.32
FoulsContext
12.88
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.44
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
2.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.80
ShotsContext
11.30
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
32%
On target shareContext
33%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
65%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.25
17.50
Shots allowedContext
11.90
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.70
BlocksContext
3.33
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
66%
Save rateContext
59%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
477
PassesContext
366
401
Accurate passesContext
288
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.63
11.60
FoulsContext
11.00
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest8.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,173 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Espanyol
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel418 km995 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.7La Liga 2025-2026, 20 Feb | 7.7La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 418 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,173 km | 995 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
6Bigas
22D. Affengruber
21L. Pétrot
11Germán Valera
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
24Lucas Cepeda
15Tete Morente
9André Silva
10Rafa Mir
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
38C. Riedel
23O. El Hilali
11Pere Milla
10Pol Lozano
4Urko González
24T. Dolan
8Edu Expósito
19Kike García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Espanyol
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Espanyol+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
1.62points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-2
- Scored
- 1.54
- Conceded
- 1.00
Espanyol · Away
1.25points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-5
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.58
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Osasuna | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Levante | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–3 H | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 4–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Mallorca | L 1–3 A | W 3–2 H |
| Girona | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Real Madrid | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Alaves | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 A | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 25 of 72 · 1.04 per game | 32 of 72 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Elche wins2 draws2 Espanyol wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.40
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 25 Oct 2025Espanyol1–0Elche
- 19 Feb 2023Elche0–1Espanyol
- 23 Oct 2022Espanyol2–2Elche
- 10 Jan 2022Espanyol1–2Elche
- 23 Oct 2021Elche2–2Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.28 | 1.24 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.48 | |
| Match goals | 2.76 | 2.72 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 52% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 56% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 20% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Elche | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.52 | 4.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.08 | 8.80 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 11/25 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 8/25 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 5/25 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 2.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.28 | |
| Match total | 4.52 | 4.32 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 20/25 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 52% 13/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Elche | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 8.90 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.00 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.85league 4.18
Red cards0.38league 0.27
Cards 5+54%league 46%
Fouls27.7league 24.5
Penalties0.31league 0.37
Home wins23%league 47%
Elche1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W29 Aug 25H · Levante2–01
Espanyol2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.5 · 4.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L16 Jan 26H · Girona0–25
- L5 Oct 25H · Real Betis1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche25 games · scored 32 · conceded 37
5
8
0-15
4
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
8
3
46-60
6
5
61-75
6
15
76-90
Espanyol25 games · scored 31 · conceded 37
4
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
9
31-45
9
9
46-60
3
7
61-75
10
6
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
3
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
8
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 12 · conceded 21
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
