Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Levante were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 35). Elche usually keep the ball (55% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Elche had 6 days of rest, Levante 5.9 and had to travel 138 km.
Away travel138 kmRest days6 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Elche39%
Draw29%
Levante32%
Elche38%
Draw27%
Levante35%
Elche39%
Draw29%
Levante32%
Elche32%
Draw29%
Levante39%
Elche38%
Draw27%
Levante35%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 1
Team strength
Elche
Levante
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
39
AttackIn forecast
55
51
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheLevante
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
0.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
6.00
ShotsContext
7.50
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
53%
4.00
Shots in the boxContext
—
67%
Box shareContext
—
17%
ConversionContext
20%
—
OffsidesContext
4.50
12.00
Shots allowedContext
20.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
3.50
BlocksContext
6.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.50
80%
Save rateContext
79%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
28%
546
PassesContext
225
475
Accurate passesContext
146
87%
Pass accuracyContext
65%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.67
10.00
FoulsContext
11.50
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.20
ShotsContext
14.30
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
30%
On target shareContext
38%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
76%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.86
13.50
Shots allowedContext
16.30
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
4.00
BlocksContext
3.40
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
81%
Save rateContext
67%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
451
PassesContext
357
371
Accurate passesContext
277
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.10
FoulsContext
11.70
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Levante
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel138 km843 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Levante |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 138 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 843 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 15.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
6Bigas
22D. Affengruber
23Víctor Chust
8Marc Aguado
11Germán Valera
14Aleix Febas
30Rodrigo Mendoza
15Alvaro Núñez
10Rafa Mir
20Á. Rodríguez
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
14Jorge Cabello
5Unai Elguezabal
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
7Roger Brugué
20Oriol Rey
10Pablo Martínez
24Carlos Álvarez
9Iván Romero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Absences are shown before kick-off
Levante
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Levante+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Levante · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Elche wins2 draws1 Levante wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 25 Feb 2022Levante3–0Elche
- 18 Sep 2021Elche1–1Levante
- 24 Apr 2021Elche1–0Levante
- 21 Nov 2020Levante1–1Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Elche | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 10.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 11.00 | 8.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.50 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Elche | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.60 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 12.90 | 10.78 | 8.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.40 | 3.84 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 1 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.00league 3.48
Red cards0.00league 0.29
Cards 5+100%league 29%
Fouls29.0league 23.4
Penalties0.00league 0.38
Home wins0%league 43%
ElcheNo previous matches with this referee.
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Levante2 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 21 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
8
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
