Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Elche were slight favourites.
Mallorca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 37). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Elche. Elche had 6.7 days of rest, Mallorca 6 and had to travel 324 km.
Away travel324 kmRest days6.7 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Elche42%
Draw27%
Mallorca31%
Elche38%
Draw27%
Mallorca34%
Elche41%
Draw27%
Mallorca31%
Elche35%
Draw27%
Mallorca38%
Elche42%
Draw26%
Mallorca32%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 40
Team strength
Elche
Mallorca
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
39
AttackIn forecast
50
51
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheMallorca
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.61
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
86%
Scored inContext
71%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
10.71
ShotsContext
9.96
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.07
36%
On target shareContext
39%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.65
66%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.06
14.25
Shots allowedContext
14.71
4.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.89
3.86
BlocksContext
4.57
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
66%
Save rateContext
70%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
511
PassesContext
379
441
Accurate passesContext
304
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.82
FoulsContext
10.75
13.93
Fouls sufferedContext
12.18
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.29
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
2.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.78
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
10.20
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
40%
On target shareContext
40%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
66%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.43
17.00
Shots allowedContext
16.70
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
4.70
BlocksContext
5.20
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
59%
Save rateContext
67%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
484
PassesContext
397
407
Accurate passesContext
322
84%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.78
13.10
FoulsContext
10.70
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,091 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Mallorca
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel324 km1,018 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.7La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 324 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,091 km | 1,018 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.3 | 14.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
6Bigas
23Víctor Chust
22D. Affengruber
11Germán Valera
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
19G. Diangana
15Tete Morente
20Á. Rodríguez
10Rafa Mir
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
3Toni Lato
24M. Valjent
21Raíllo
6Antonio Sánchez
5Omar Mascarell
12Samú Costa
18Mateo Joseph
20Pablo Torre
15Zito Luvumbo
7V. Muriqi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Mallorca-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
1.57points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-7-2
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.07
Mallorca · Away
0.43points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-10
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.93
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Levante | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 4–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Girona | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Getafe | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Alaves | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 26 of 81 · 0.96 per game | 25 of 81 · 0.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Elche wins2 draws1 Mallorca wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 13 Dec 2025Mallorca3–1Elche
- 4 Mar 2023Mallorca0–1Elche
- 10 Oct 2022Elche1–1Mallorca
- 16 Apr 2022Elche3–0Mallorca
- 7 Nov 2021Mallorca2–2Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 1.61 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 2.79 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 64% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 64% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Elche | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.57 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 6.88 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 10.26 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 12/28 | 85% 22/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 9/28 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 5/28 | 42% 11/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.68 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 79% 22/28 | 57% 16/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 14/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Elche | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 7.22 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.89 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.40 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.38league 4.20
Red cards0.18league 0.28
Cards 5+25%league 47%
Fouls24.3league 24.5
Penalties0.35league 0.37
Home wins48%league 48%
Elche1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D12 Sep 25A · Sevilla2–23
Mallorca5 with this referee
Record1-0-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L4 Jan 26H · Girona1–22
- L14 May 25A · Real Madrid1–23
- L4 May 24H · Atletico Madrid0–12
- W9 Dec 23H · Sevilla1–02
- L18 Aug 23H · Villarreal0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche28 games · scored 36 · conceded 45
5
9
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
6
31-45
8
4
46-60
6
6
61-75
9
16
76-90
Mallorca28 games · scored 33 · conceded 45
4
6
0-15
4
9
16-30
4
12
31-45
1
2
46-60
10
3
61-75
10
13
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 22
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
4
6
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
