Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Elche were slight favourites.
Elche were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 28). Absences weigh more on Oviedo. Elche had 8.9 days of rest, Oviedo 8.2 and had to travel 713 km.
Away travel713 kmRest days8.9 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Elche52%
Draw26%
Oviedo22%
Elche50%
Draw26%
Oviedo24%
Elche50%
Draw27%
Oviedo23%
Elche45%
Draw28%
Oviedo28%
Elche52%
Draw25%
Oviedo23%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Elche
Oviedo
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
39
AttackIn forecast
23
51
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheOviedo
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.25
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
0.58
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.75
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
100%
Scored inContext
25%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
8.25
ShotsContext
5.75
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.25
33%
On target shareContext
39%
5.75
Shots in the boxContext
2.50
64%
Box shareContext
43%
18%
ConversionContext
4%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.50
Shots allowedContext
19.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
2.75
BlocksContext
5.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.75
71%
Save rateContext
82%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
502
PassesContext
369
435
Accurate passesContext
305
87%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.25
FoulsContext
10.25
16.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.25
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
0.58
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
100%
Scored inContext
25%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.30
ShotsContext
5.75
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.25
30%
On target shareContext
39%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
2.50
73%
Box shareContext
43%
11%
ConversionContext
4%
2.83
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.40
Shots allowedContext
19.50
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
3.88
BlocksContext
5.00
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.75
76%
Save rateContext
82%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
464
PassesContext
369
388
Accurate passesContext
305
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.90
FoulsContext
10.25
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km946 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel713 km764 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Sep | 8.2La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 713 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 946 km | 764 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
13Iñaki Peña(G)
6Bigas
22D. Affengruber
15Alvaro Núñez
14Aleix Febas
11Germán Valera
16Martim Neto
30Rodrigo Mendoza
17Josan
10Rafa Mir
9André Silva
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
3Abdel Rahim
16David Carmo
12Dani Calvo
22Nacho Vidal
6Kwasi Sibo
20L. Dendoncker
18J. Brekalo
21L. Ilić
10H. Hassan
23S. Rondón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+1.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Oviedo-1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Oviedo · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 25% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Elche | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 25% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 75% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.25 | 1.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 8.25 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 9.75 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Elche | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 1.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.20 | 8.25 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 9.75 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 3.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.50 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 25% 1/4 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.80
Red cards0.00league 0.31
Cards 5+50%league 39%
Fouls27.0league 24.3
Penalties0.00league 0.35
Home wins100%league 47%
ElcheNo previous matches with this referee.
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche4 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Oviedo4 games · scored 1 · conceded 7
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Oviedo4 games · scored 1 · conceded 7
0-15
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
