Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 40). Absences weigh more on Rayo Vallecano. Elche had 8.1 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 5.9 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days8.1 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Elche37%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano35%
Elche35%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano37%
Elche35%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano37%
Elche31%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano42%
Elche37%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano35%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 12
Team strength
Elche
Rayo Vallecano
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
39
AttackIn forecast
61
51
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheRayo Vallecano
1.19
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.81
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
81%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
10.63
ShotsContext
12.69
4.07
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.06
36%
On target shareContext
32%
7.13
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
65%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
2.27
OffsidesContext
2.31
12.44
Shots allowedContext
11.25
4.19
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.44
BlocksContext
3.56
2.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
70%
Save rateContext
71%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
523
PassesContext
435
457
Accurate passesContext
364
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.81
FoulsContext
13.00
14.19
Fouls sufferedContext
10.56
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
70%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.00
ShotsContext
15.10
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
27%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
65%
Box shareContext
51%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.60
Shots allowedContext
11.20
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.80
BlocksContext
3.20
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
68%
Save rateContext
61%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
519
PassesContext
450
455
Accurate passesContext
384
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.10
FoulsContext
13.80
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km649 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel352 km995 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 649 km | 995 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 12.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
13Iñaki Peña(G)
6Bigas
22D. Affengruber
18John Nwankwo
11Germán Valera
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
15Alvaro Núñez
39Héctor Fort
10Rafa Mir
20Á. Rodríguez
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
32N. Mendy
24F. Lejeune
20I. Balliu
23Óscar Valentín
17Unai López
18Álvaro García
7Isi Palazón
22A. Espino
10Sergio Camello
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+1.9 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Rayo Vallecano-2.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
2.00points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.63
Rayo Vallecano · Away
1.11points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Girona | W 3–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Real Madrid | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Athletic Club | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Alaves | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Osasuna | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 19 of 42 · 1.36 per game | 17 of 42 · 1.21 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Elche wins0 draws2 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.25
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 29 Apr 2023Elche4–0Rayo Vallecano
- 3 Oct 2022Rayo Vallecano2–1Elche
- 18 Feb 2022Elche2–1Rayo Vallecano
- 17 Oct 2021Rayo Vallecano2–1Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.19 | 0.81 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 1.81 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 25% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 31% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 50% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Elche | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 1.30 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 30% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 10% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.94 | 6.06 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 7.07 | 11.19 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 31% 5/16 | 81% 13/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 19% 3/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 2/16 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.63 | |
| Match total | 4.25 | 4.32 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 11/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 7/16 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Elche | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 7.60 | 10.50 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 5.20 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 4.10
Red cards0.25league 0.28
Cards 5+42%league 45%
Fouls25.5league 24.6
Penalties0.42league 0.33
Home wins75%league 47%
Elche1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D25 Sep 25A · Osasuna1–13
Rayo VallecanoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche16 games · scored 19 · conceded 20
2
5
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
7
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
9
76-90
Rayo Vallecano16 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
8
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 10 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
