Elche vs Real Madrid – 23 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 23 · 20:00 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

Elche 13th · 15 pts · 12 played LDLLD

2–2Full time

Real Madrid 2nd · 31 pts · 12 played WWWWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid were clear favourites.

Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 39). Absences weigh more on Real Madrid. Elche had 16 days of rest, Real Madrid 14.2 and had to travel 352 km.

Away travel352 kmRest days16 · 14.2Matches / 14d0 · 0

Elche13%

Draw20%

Real Madrid66%

Expected goals 0.85 – 2.14

Elche13%

Draw20%

Real Madrid67%

Expected goals 0.83 – 2.16

Elche13%

Draw20%

Real Madrid67%

Expected goals 0.82 – 2.15

Elche10%

Draw17%

Real Madrid73%

Expected goals 0.76 – 2.39

Elche13%

Draw20%

Real Madrid67%

Expected goals 0.85 – 2.15

Over 2.5 57% Both score 51% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Elche)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 24

Team strength

Elche

Real Madrid

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 90

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

39 AttackIn forecast 89

51 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Elche

Real Madrid

1.08 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.17

1.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.83

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 2.14

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.00

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

83% Scored inContext 92%

25% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.67 ShotsContext 19.17

3.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.17

36% On target shareContext 37%

7.42 Shots in the boxContext 11.67

66% Box shareContext 61%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.10

12.08 Shots allowedContext 9.58

3.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

3.67 BlocksContext 3.80

2.58 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

69% Save rateContext 63%

59% PossessionIn forecast 60%

527 PassesContext 580

460 Accurate passesContext 518

87% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.89 Team ratingContext 7.17

12.83 FoulsContext 11.00

14.92 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25

1.92 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 2.27

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.60 ShotsContext 19.10

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.50

36% On target shareContext 39%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 11.60

66% Box shareContext 58%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.10 Shots allowedContext 11.00

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

3.70 BlocksContext 3.30

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

66% Save rateContext 74%

60% PossessionIn forecast 62%

523 PassesContext 566

457 Accurate passesContext 501

87% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.89 Team ratingContext 7.11

13.40 FoulsContext 11.50

15.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Elche

Rest16 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Madrid

Rest14.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel352 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Elche	Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	16La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Nov	14.2La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Elche Confirmed XI

5-3-2

13Iñaki Peña(G)

11Germán Valera 23Víctor Chust 22D. Affengruber 15Alvaro Núñez 39Héctor Fort

14Aleix Febas 8Marc Aguado 19G. Diangana

9André Silva 10Rafa Mir

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1T. Courtois(G)

18Álvaro Fernández 24D. Huijsen 17Raúl Asencio

20Fran García 19Dani Ceballos 15A. Güler 12T. Alexander-Arnold

5J. Bellingham

10K. Mbappé 11Rodrygo

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Elche Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Madrid Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Elche+0.6 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Real Madrid-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Elche · Home 2.00points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-0
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 0.50

Real Madrid · Away 2.17points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 4-1-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	Elche	Real Madrid
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 A
Barcelona	L 1–3 A	W 2–1 H
Espanyol	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
Osasuna	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Oviedo	W 1–0 H	W 3–0 A
Levante	W 2–0 H	W 4–1 A
Atletico Madrid	D 1–1 A	L 2–5 A
Points	9 of 21 · 1.29 per game	18 of 21 · 2.57 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Elche wins2 draws4 Real Madrid wins

Goals per game0.83 – 2.33 Over 2.583% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

15 Feb 2023Real Madrid4–0Elche
19 Oct 2022Elche0–3Real Madrid
23 Jan 2022Real Madrid2–2Elche
30 Oct 2021Elche1–2Real Madrid
13 Mar 2021Real Madrid2–1Elche
30 Dec 2020Elche1–1Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Elche	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.08	2.17
Conceded per game	1.17	0.83
Match goals	2.25	3.00	2.98
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	33%	67%	57%
Over 3.5	25%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	50%	51%
Clean sheets	25%	50%
Failed to score	17%	8%
Games	12	12

	Elche	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	2.20
Conceded per game	1.20	1.00
Match goals	2.30	3.20	2.98
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	57%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Elche	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	3.17	5.80
Corners conceded	4.42	3.90
Match total	7.59	9.70	9.73
Over 8.5	33% 4/12	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	17% 2/12	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	17% 2/12	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.08	1.75
Opponent cards	2.33	2.33
Match total	4.41	4.08	4.27
Over 3.5	75% 9/12	50% 6/12
Over 4.5	50% 6/12	42% 5/12

	Elche	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	6.22
Corners conceded	4.00	3.22
Match total	7.50	9.44	9.73
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.80
Opponent cards	2.60	2.60
Match total	4.70	4.40	4.27
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.96league 4.03

Red cards0.08league 0.27

Cards 5+42%league 45%

Fouls23.6league 24.5

Penalties0.29league 0.34

Home wins46%league 48%

Elche

No previous matches with this referee.

Real Madrid1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W21 Jan 24H · Almeria3–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.