Elche vs Real Madrid – 15 Sep 2026

La Liga Gameweek 6 Tue, Sep 15 · 20:30 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

Elche 20th · 2 pts · 5 played DLLLD

2–3Full time

Real Madrid 2nd · 12 pts · 5 played WWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid were clear favourites.

Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Madrid. Elche had 3.1 days of rest, Real Madrid 3 and had to travel 352 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel352 kmRest days3.1 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3

Elche12%

Draw16%

Real Madrid72%

Expected goals 1.01 – 2.66

Elche14%

Draw20%

Real Madrid66%

Expected goals 0.85 – 2.09

Elche11%

Draw15%

Real Madrid74%

Expected goals 0.99 – 2.70

Elche8%

Draw12%

Real Madrid79%

Expected goals 0.90 – 2.98

Elche12%

Draw16%

Real Madrid72%

Expected goals 0.99 – 2.59

Over 2.5 71% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Elche)

23°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 86%

Warm

Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 59

Team strength

Elche

Real Madrid

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

39 AttackIn forecast 89

51 DefenceIn forecast 85

20 Form indexContext 88

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Elche

Real Madrid

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.80

2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 2.91

1.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

80% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.80 ShotsContext 20.80

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.20

44% On target shareContext 44%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 14.80

59% Box shareContext 71%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

12.80 Shots allowedContext 12.00

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

2.25 BlocksContext 3.60

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

48% Save rateContext 79%

52% PossessionIn forecast 57%

489 PassesContext 572

417 Accurate passesContext 524

85% Pass accuracyContext 92%

6.51 Team ratingContext 7.27

13.00 FoulsContext 9.00

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 5 and 5 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 2.18

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.84

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

90% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.20 ShotsContext 17.10

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.10

37% On target shareContext 42%

7.89 Shots in the boxContext 12.30

61% Box shareContext 73%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.33

11.00 Shots allowedContext 12.00

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

2.00 BlocksContext 3.00

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

53% Save rateContext 85%

55% PossessionIn forecast 56%

474 PassesContext 545

404 Accurate passesContext 493

85% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.66 Team ratingContext 7.12

14.30 FoulsContext 8.90

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Elche DLLLD

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,173 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 20 · 2 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected

D12 SepA · Athletic Club1–10.8 xPts
L7 SepH · Real Sociedad2–31.4 xPts
L28 AugA · Racing Santander2–31.0 xPts
L23 AugH · Barcelona0–50.8 xPts
D17 AugA · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.2 xPts

Real Madrid WWLWW

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel352 km781 km in 14d

Schedule load29%Moderate

Form 88 · 12 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected

W12 SepH · Rayo Vallecano4–12.5 xPts
W8 SepH · Inter2–12.0 xPts
L4 SepA · Real Betis0–12.0 xPts
W30 AugH · Malaga4–02.4 xPts
W26 AugH · Real Sociedad4–12.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Elche	Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Moderate · 29
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1La Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep	3La Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,173 km	781 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 3 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	3	4.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Elche Confirmed XI

4-5-1

1M. Dituro(G)

3R. Revivo 23Víctor Chust 5F. Redondo 2Buba Sangaré

20Tete Morente 12Gonzalo Villar 8Marc Aguado 16Martim Neto 11Germán Valera

24A. Osorio

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1T. Courtois(G)

17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 12T. Alexander-Arnold

14A. Tchouaméni 8F. Valverde

7Vinícius 15A. Güler 25Y. Diomande

10K. Mbappé

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Elche Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Madrid Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Elche+0.7 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Real Madrid-1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Elche · Home 0.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 4.00

Real Madrid · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Elche	Real Madrid
Real Sociedad	L 2–3 H	W 4–1 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

0 Elche wins3 draws5 Real Madrid wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.50 Over 2.588% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

14 Mar 2026Real Madrid4–1Elche
23 Nov 2025Elche2–2Real Madrid
15 Feb 2023Real Madrid4–0Elche
19 Oct 2022Elche0–3Real Madrid
23 Jan 2022Real Madrid2–2Elche
30 Oct 2021Elche1–2Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Elche	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	2.80
Conceded per game	2.60	0.80
Match goals	3.80	3.60	3.67
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	71%
Over 3.5	60%	60%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	59%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	5	5

	Elche	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	2.30
Conceded per game	2.00	0.90
Match goals	3.10	3.20	3.67
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	71%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	59%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Elche	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	8.50
Corners conceded	4.40	6.00
Match total	9.60	14.50	10.08
Over 8.5	40% 2/5	100% 4/4
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	100% 4/4
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	100% 4/4
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.60
Opponent cards	1.80	2.80
Match total	4.00	4.40	4.39
Over 3.5	60% 3/5	60% 3/5
Over 4.5	40% 2/5	60% 3/5

	Elche	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	6.22
Corners conceded	4.22	5.33
Match total	8.33	11.55	10.08
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.50
Opponent cards	2.50	2.30
Match total	5.20	3.80	4.39
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 59 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.51league 4.15

Red cards0.24league 0.25

Cards 5+54%league 47%

Fouls25.1league 24.4

Penalties0.41league 0.32

Home wins42%league 45%

Elche1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L14 Mar 26A · Real Madrid1–43

Real Madrid8 with this referee

Record7-1-0 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds2

W3 May 26A · Espanyol2–04
W14 Mar 26H · Elche4–11
W3 Dec 25A · Athletic Club3–00
W13 Sep 25A · Real Sociedad2–12
W4 May 25H · Celta Vigo3–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.