Erzurumspor FK
Attack+48%
Defense risk−29%
Our take
Erzurumspor FK were clear favourites.
Erzurumspor FK were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Erzurumspor FK. Eyüpspor were without A. Abdullahi and J. El Yamiq. Erzurumspor FK had 6.9 days of rest, Eyüpspor 4.7 and had to travel 1,049 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel1,049 kmRest days6.9 · 4.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Erzurumspor FK66%
Draw20%
Eyüpspor14%
Erzurumspor FK55%
Draw24%
Eyüpspor20%
Erzurumspor FK64%
Draw21%
Eyüpspor15%
Erzurumspor FK58%
Draw23%
Eyüpspor19%
Erzurumspor FK66%
Draw20%
Eyüpspor14%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Erzurum)
17°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 21 km/h
- Humidity 47%
Referee · TürkiyeErdem Mertoglu
- Cards per match 6.7
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 3
Team strength
Erzurumspor FK
Eyüpspor
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
17
AttackIn forecast
9
38
DefenceIn forecast
10
43
Form indexContext
11
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack−4%
Defense risk−13%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Erzurumspor FKEyüpspor
0.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.29
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.86
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.13
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.48
43%
Scored inContext
14%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.83
ShotsContext
11.43
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.29
34%
On target shareContext
29%
6.83
Shots in the boxContext
7.17
67%
Box shareContext
59%
5%
ConversionContext
3%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.00
11.83
Shots allowedContext
14.29
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.20
BlocksContext
4.14
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
71%
Save rateContext
55%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
416
PassesContext
380
349
Accurate passesContext
320
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.50
10.67
FoulsContext
11.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.71
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
43%
Scored inContext
40%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.83
ShotsContext
10.70
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
34%
On target shareContext
33%
6.83
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
67%
Box shareContext
53%
5%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.83
Shots allowedContext
15.10
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
2.20
BlocksContext
4.40
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
71%
Save rateContext
60%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
416
PassesContext
349
349
Accurate passesContext
287
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.62
10.67
FoulsContext
11.40
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.10
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Erzurumspor FK
DWLWD
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,784 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 43 · 8 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Eyüpspor
WLLLL
Rest4.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,049 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 11 · 3 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -2.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Erzurumspor FK |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 4.7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 12 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,049 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,784 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Erzurumspor FK
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
15G. Giorbelidze
18N. Mujakić
22M. Yumlu
4A. Gerxhaliu
53O. Ovacıklı
65M. Rodríguez
42E. Owusu
6B. Baiye
20Miguel Cardoso
10E. Tozlu
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1E. Bilgin(G)
21S. Giordano
33Z. Jules
4S. Yaşar
5J. El Yamiq
77K. Michalak
15Charles-Andre Raux Yao
28T. İlter
88C. Massanga
9Y. Barası
98B. Boutobba
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Erzurumspor FK
No reported absences
Eyüpspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −26.3% · Defence line −11.8% of weighted minutes
- ATT A. Abdullahi Starter 6.17 Att −24.9%
- DEF J. El Yamiq Starter 6.65 Def −11.1%
- MID A. Sabiri Rotation 7.10 Att −1.4% Def −0.7%
Total impact vs full squads
- Erzurumspor FK+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Eyüpspor-1.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Erzurumspor FK · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Eyüpspor · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Erzurumspor FK | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Erzurumspor FK | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.43 | 0.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 2.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.14 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 14% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 86% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Erzurumspor FK | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.43 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 14% | 30% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 60% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Erzurumspor FK | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 6.83 | 8.72 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/6 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 3.57 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Erzurumspor FK | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 6.83 | 9.11 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/6 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/6 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/6 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.86 | 3.30 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Erdem Mertoglu Türkiye · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.67league 3.95
Red cards0.00league 0.19
Cards 5+67%league 42%
Fouls24.7league 24.4
Penalties0.00league 0.36
Home wins67%league 45%
Erzurumspor FKNo previous matches with this referee.
EyüpsporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Erzurumspor FK7 games · scored 3 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
Eyüpspor7 games · scored 2 · conceded 20
5
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
46-60
61-75
1
4
76-90
Erzurumspor FK7 games · scored 3 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 24
1
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
46-60
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
