Erzurumspor FK
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Galatasaray were slight favourites.
Galatasaray were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Galatasaray. Erzurumspor FK had 5 days of rest, Galatasaray 7 and had to travel 1,049 km.
Away travel1,049 kmRest days5 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Erzurumspor FK20%
Draw22%
Galatasaray58%
Erzurumspor FK22%
Draw24%
Galatasaray55%
Erzurumspor FK20%
Draw22%
Galatasaray58%
Erzurumspor FK15%
Draw19%
Galatasaray65%
Erzurumspor FK21%
Draw23%
Galatasaray57%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Erzurum)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 16
Team strength
Erzurumspor FK
Galatasaray
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
17
AttackIn forecast
57
38
DefenceIn forecast
55
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Erzurumspor FKGalatasaray
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
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xGVia Att/Def
1.69
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
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Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
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Scored inContext
80%
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Clean sheetsContext
10%
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ShotsContext
15.70
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
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On target shareContext
33%
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Shots in the boxContext
10.56
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Box shareContext
64%
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ConversionContext
11%
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OffsidesContext
3.17
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Shots allowedContext
11.60
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
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BlocksContext
2.25
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Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
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Save rateContext
61%
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PossessionIn forecast
61%
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PassesContext
469
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Accurate passesContext
401
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Pass accuracyContext
86%
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Team ratingContext
6.84
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FoulsContext
11.10
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Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
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Yellow cardsContext
1.70
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Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Erzurumspor FK
L
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km480 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 0 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
- L16 AugA · Amed0–31.2 xPts
Galatasaray
D
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,049 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 41 · 1 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
- D14 AugH · Çorum FK2–22.2 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Erzurumspor FK |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Süper Lig 2026-2027, 16 Aug | 7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 14 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,049 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 480 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Erzurumspor FK
Confirmed XI
31M. Orbanić(G)
18N. Mujakić
3Y. Kırtay
4A. Gerxhaliu
53O. Ovacıklı
6B. Baiye
9G. Kerk
65M. Rodríguez
42E. Owusu
99M. Fettahoğlu
10E. Tozlu
Galatasaray
Confirmed XI
1U. Çakır(G)
4I. Jakobs
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
99M. Lemina
34L. Torreira
53B. Yılmaz
8Gabriel Sara
11Y. Akgün
45V. Osimhen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Erzurumspor FK
Absences are shown before kick-off
Galatasaray
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Erzurumspor FK+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Galatasaray+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Erzurumspor FK · Home
No home games yet this season.
Galatasaray · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Erzurumspor FK | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Erzurumspor FK | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 80% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 10% | |
| Games | 1 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Erzurumspor FK | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.00 | 10.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 2.00 | 3.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Erzurumspor FK | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.20 | 10.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 1.00 | 3.60 | 3.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.44league 3.22
Red cards0.19league 0.22
Cards 5+19%league 44%
Fouls24.3league 24.8
Penalties0.19league 0.44
Home wins44%league 44%
Erzurumspor FKNo previous matches with this referee.
Galatasaray4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W9 May 26H · Antalyaspor4–24
- W13 Feb 26H · Eyüpspor5–10
- L9 Nov 25A · Kocaelispor0–11
- W27 Apr 25A · Eyüpspor5–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Erzurumspor FK1 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Galatasaray1 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Erzurumspor FK1 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
5
46-60
3
7
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
