Erzurumspor FK
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Erzurumspor FK19.8%fair odds 5.06
Draw23.0%fair odds 4.35
Galatasaray57.3%fair odds 1.75
Expected goals1.06 – 1.93total 2.99
Likeliest score1–110.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Galatasaray
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Erzurumspor FK ↓ · Galatasaray → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Erzurumspor FK goals, columns Galatasaray goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%9.25
- 1–29.9%10.07
- 0–29.4%10.64
- 0–19.2%10.90
- 1–36.4%15.62
- 0–36.1%16.51
- 0–05.6%17.96
- 2–15.4%18.43
- 2–25.2%19.05
- 1–04.8%20.99
Winning margin
2.1%
Erzurumspor FK by 3+
fair 47.84
5.3%
Erzurumspor FK by 2
fair 18.94
12.4%
Erzurumspor FK by 1
fair 8.07
23.0%
Draw
fair 4.35
23.1%
Galatasaray by 1
fair 4.32
17.7%
Galatasaray by 2
fair 5.66
16.5%
Galatasaray by 3+
fair 6.08
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Erzurumspor FK goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
Galatasaray goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor FK win | 19.8% | 20.3% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 23.0% | 23.7% | -0.7 pp |
| Galatasaray win | 57.3% | 56.0% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 55.2% | +2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.4% | 55.0% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Erzurumspor FK | 1.06 | 1.04 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Galatasaray | 1.93 | 1.85 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Erzurumspor FK win19.8%5.06
- Draw23.0%4.35
- Galatasaray win57.3%1.75
- Double chance Erzurumspor FK or draw42.7%2.34
- Double chance Erzurumspor FK or Galatasaray77.0%1.30
- Double chance Galatasaray or draw80.2%1.25
- Draw no bet Erzurumspor FK25.7%3.90
- Draw no bet Galatasaray74.3%1.35
Goals
- Over 0.594.4%1.06
- Over 1.580.5%1.24
- Over 2.557.5%1.74
- Over 3.535.1%2.85
- Over 4.518.3%5.46
- Under 1.519.5%5.13
- Under 2.542.5%2.35
- Under 3.564.9%1.54
Both teams to score
- Yes56.4%1.77
- No43.6%2.29
- Yes and over 2.545.6%2.20
- Erzurumspor FK win and yes10.9%9.20
- Draw and yes17.4%5.74
- Galatasaray win and yes28.1%3.56
Team goals
- Erzurumspor FK over 0.565.3%1.53
- Erzurumspor FK over 1.528.5%3.51
- Erzurumspor FK over 2.59.1%10.98
- Galatasaray over 0.585.5%1.17
- Galatasaray over 1.557.6%1.74
- Galatasaray over 2.530.6%3.27
- Erzurumspor FK clean sheet14.5%6.92
- Galatasaray clean sheet34.7%2.88
- Erzurumspor FK win to nil8.9%11.25
- Galatasaray win to nil29.2%3.43
Handicap
- Erzurumspor FK −1.57.4%13.57
- Erzurumspor FK −2.52.1%47.84
- Galatasaray +1.592.6%1.08
- Galatasaray +2.597.9%1.02
- Galatasaray −1.534.1%2.93
- Erzurumspor FK +1.565.9%1.52
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored9
Favourite won33.3%
Avg chance given to result35.1%
1X2 Brier0.711
Over 2.5 called right55.6%
BTTS called right55.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 5 | 44.1% | 20.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 9 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 9 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.