Erzurumspor FK
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Erzurumspor FK were slight favourites.
Erzurumspor FK were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Konyaspor. Erzurumspor FK had 7.8 days of rest, Konyaspor 6.9 and had to travel 794 km.
Away travel794 kmRest days7.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Erzurumspor FK49%
Draw24%
Konyaspor27%
Erzurumspor FK50%
Draw25%
Konyaspor25%
Erzurumspor FK48%
Draw24%
Konyaspor27%
Erzurumspor FK41%
Draw25%
Konyaspor34%
Erzurumspor FK49%
Draw24%
Konyaspor27%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Erzurum)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 42
Team strength
Erzurumspor FK
Konyaspor
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
17
AttackIn forecast
13
38
DefenceIn forecast
31
21
Form indexContext
14
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKonyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Erzurumspor FKKonyaspor
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
0.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
33%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.67
ShotsContext
11.33
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
35%
On target shareContext
32%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
55%
Box shareContext
67%
4%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
13.00
Shots allowedContext
16.33
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
50%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
488
PassesContext
407
416
Accurate passesContext
342
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.45
Team ratingContext
6.67
11.33
FoulsContext
12.67
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
33%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.67
ShotsContext
10.70
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
35%
On target shareContext
36%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
55%
Box shareContext
67%
4%
ConversionContext
14%
—
OffsidesContext
1.43
13.00
Shots allowedContext
16.20
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.60
3.00
BlocksContext
4.10
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.70
50%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
488
PassesContext
362
416
Accurate passesContext
293
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.45
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.33
FoulsContext
14.10
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Erzurumspor FK
LLD
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,436 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 1 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Erzurumspor FK |
Konyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 28 Aug | 6.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 794 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,436 km | 926 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Erzurumspor FK
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
15G. Giorbelidze
18N. Mujakić
22M. Yumlu
4A. Gerxhaliu
53O. Ovacıklı
65M. Rodríguez
6B. Baiye
42E. Owusu
99M. Fettahoğlu
10E. Tozlu
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
13B. Güngördü(G)
26A. Masuaku
4A. Demirbağ
22R. Baniya
17Y. Andzouana
8M. Jevtović
77M. İbrahimoğlu
11J. Muleka
7Diogo Gonçalves
19E. Colley
94E. Destan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Erzurumspor FK
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Konyaspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Erzurumspor FK+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Konyaspor-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Erzurumspor FK · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Konyaspor · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Erzurumspor FK | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.33 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Erzurumspor FK | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.67 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 80% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 20% | |
| Games | 3 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Erzurumspor FK | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 1.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 6.67 | 7.67 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 2.66 | 4.33 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Erzurumspor FK | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 6.67 | 7.90 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/3 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.66 | 4.10 | 3.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.12league 3.39
Red cards0.40league 0.18
Cards 5+60%league 36%
Fouls26.8league 26.0
Penalties0.36league 0.39
Home wins36%league 43%
Erzurumspor FKNo previous matches with this referee.
Konyaspor4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 3.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D8 Feb 26H · Goztepe0–02
- L22 Sep 25A · Galatasaray1–30
- L16 Feb 25H · Samsunspor0–14
- D21 Sep 24H · Sivasspor0–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Erzurumspor FK3 games · scored 1 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
Konyaspor3 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Erzurumspor FK3 games · scored 1 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
5
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
