Erzurumspor FK
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Erzurumspor FK48.3%fair odds 2.07
Draw25.2%fair odds 3.97
Konyaspor26.5%fair odds 3.77
Expected goals1.69 – 1.20total 2.90
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Konyaspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Erzurumspor FK ↓ · Konyaspor → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Erzurumspor FK goals, columns Konyaspor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.44
- 2–19.5%10.50
- 1–08.8%11.41
- 2–07.9%12.62
- 1–26.8%14.79
- 0–06.1%16.33
- 0–16.0%16.53
- 2–25.7%17.46
- 3–15.4%18.60
- 3–04.5%22.36
Winning margin
11.3%
Erzurumspor FK by 3+
fair 8.87
14.9%
Erzurumspor FK by 2
fair 6.72
22.1%
Erzurumspor FK by 1
fair 4.52
25.2%
Draw
fair 3.97
15.5%
Konyaspor by 1
fair 6.44
7.5%
Konyaspor by 2
fair 13.34
3.5%
Konyaspor by 3+
fair 28.47
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Erzurumspor FK goals
18%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Konyaspor goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor FK win | 48.3% | 48.0% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.2% | 25.2% | -0.0 pp |
| Konyaspor win | 26.5% | 26.8% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 55.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.7% | 57.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Erzurumspor FK | 1.69 | 1.69 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Konyaspor | 1.20 | 1.21 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Erzurumspor FK win48.3%2.07
- Draw25.2%3.97
- Konyaspor win26.5%3.77
- Double chance Erzurumspor FK or draw73.5%1.36
- Double chance Erzurumspor FK or Konyaspor74.8%1.34
- Double chance Konyaspor or draw51.7%1.93
- Draw no bet Erzurumspor FK64.5%1.55
- Draw no bet Konyaspor35.5%2.82
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.07
- Over 1.579.1%1.26
- Over 2.555.3%1.81
- Over 3.532.9%3.04
- Over 4.516.7%5.97
- Under 1.520.9%4.78
- Under 2.544.7%2.24
- Under 3.567.1%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes57.7%1.73
- No42.3%2.36
- Yes and over 2.545.8%2.18
- Erzurumspor FK win and yes24.3%4.11
- Draw and yes19.0%5.25
- Konyaspor win and yes14.3%7.00
Team goals
- Erzurumspor FK over 0.581.6%1.23
- Erzurumspor FK over 1.550.5%1.98
- Erzurumspor FK over 2.524.1%4.15
- Konyaspor over 0.569.9%1.43
- Konyaspor over 1.533.8%2.96
- Konyaspor over 2.512.1%8.27
- Erzurumspor FK clean sheet30.1%3.33
- Konyaspor clean sheet18.4%5.44
- Erzurumspor FK win to nil23.9%4.18
- Konyaspor win to nil12.3%8.15
Handicap
- Erzurumspor FK −1.526.2%3.82
- Erzurumspor FK −2.511.3%8.87
- Konyaspor +1.573.8%1.35
- Konyaspor +2.588.7%1.13
- Konyaspor −1.511.0%9.08
- Erzurumspor FK +1.589.0%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored28
Favourite won42.9%
Avg chance given to result38.7%
1X2 Brier0.627
Over 2.5 called right53.6%
BTTS called right53.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.4% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 44.6% | 16.7% |
| 50–60% | 6 | 55.9% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 2 of 28 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4191 | 0.5447 |
| Avg chance given to result | 47.6% | 42.4% |
| Favourite won | 100.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 2 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 28 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.