Espanyol vs Alaves – 30 Jan 2026

La Liga Gameweek 22 Fri, Jan 30 · 20:00 RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat

Espanyol 5th · 34 pts · 21 played WLDLL

1–2Full time

Alaves 15th · 22 pts · 21 played LDLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Espanyol were slight favourites.

Espanyol were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alaves. Espanyol had 6.2 days of rest, Alaves 5 and had to travel 426 km.

Away travel426 kmRest days6.2 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2

Espanyol46%

Draw27%

Alaves28%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.14

Espanyol49%

Draw26%

Alaves25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.11

Espanyol45%

Draw27%

Alaves28%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.14

Espanyol38%

Draw27%

Alaves34%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.28

Espanyol47%

Draw25%

Alaves27%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.24

Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa

Cards per match 2.7
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 11

Team strength

Espanyol

Alaves

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

36 AttackIn forecast 48

51 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Espanyol

Alaves

1.19 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86

1.19 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.24

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

76% Scored inContext 62%

33% Clean sheetsContext 14%

12.90 ShotsContext 11.38

4.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.85

34% On target shareContext 32%

8.38 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

65% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 8%

2.07 OffsidesContext 2.94

11.95 Shots allowedContext 12.29

4.19 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.76

3.62 BlocksContext 4.11

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

74% Save rateContext 67%

42% PossessionIn forecast 50%

346 PassesContext 425

274 Accurate passesContext 345

79% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.75

13.24 FoulsContext 14.67

12.33 Fouls sufferedContext 13.62

2.05 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.43

70% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.90 ShotsContext 11.30

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33

33% On target shareContext 35%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

66% Box shareContext 67%

8% ConversionContext 6%

2.13 OffsidesContext 3.25

11.20 Shots allowedContext 13.90

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.80 BlocksContext 4.33

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

72% Save rateContext 61%

43% PossessionIn forecast 48%

343 PassesContext 427

268 Accurate passesContext 350

78% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.68

12.60 FoulsContext 14.00

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Espanyol

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km590 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alaves

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel426 km568 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Espanyol	Alaves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Jan	5La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	426 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	590 km	568 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	10	8.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13M. Dmitrović(G)

22Carlos Romero 6L. Cabrera 5F. Calero Villa 38C. Riedel

14Ramon Terrats 8Edu Expósito 4Urko González 17Jofre Carreras

19Kike García 9R. Fernández Jaén

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Antonio Sivera(G)

24Víctor Parada 5Jon Pacheco 23C. Benavídez 17Jonny

10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez 20Calebe

15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Espanyol Absences are shown before kick-off

Alaves Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Espanyol+0.5 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Alaves-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Espanyol · Home 1.73points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 6-1-4
Scored: 1.18
Conceded: 1.27

Alaves · Away 0.40points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-8
Scored: 0.40
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Espanyol	Alaves
Valencia	L 2–3 AD 2–2 H	D 0–0 H
Girona	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A	L 0–1 A
Levante	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
Barcelona	L 0–2 H	L 1–3 A
Athletic Club	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
Getafe	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Celta Vigo	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 H
Sevilla	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 H
Villarreal	L 0–2 H	L 1–3 A
Elche	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 H
Oviedo	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Real Betis	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A
Real Madrid	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 H
Mallorca	W 3–2 H	L 0–1 A
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	L 0–3 A
Real Sociedad	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 H
Atletico Madrid	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Points	34 of 60 · 1.70 per game	19 of 60 · 0.95 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Espanyol wins0 draws2 Alaves wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.20 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%

2 Nov 2025Alaves2–1Espanyol
22 Feb 2025Alaves0–1Espanyol
14 Sep 2024Espanyol3–2Alaves
11 May 2022Alaves2–1Espanyol
22 Sep 2021Espanyol1–0Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Espanyol	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.19	0.86
Conceded per game	1.19	1.24
Match goals	2.38	2.10	2.67
Over 1.5	71%	57%
Over 2.5	43%	43%	50%
Over 3.5	19%	14%
Both teams scored	48%	52%	54%
Clean sheets	33%	14%
Failed to score	24%	38%
Games	21	21

	Espanyol	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.70
Conceded per game	1.20	1.60
Match goals	2.20	2.30	2.67
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	30%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Espanyol	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	4.38	5.21
Corners conceded	4.62	4.68
Match total	9.00	9.89	9.59
Over 8.5	48% 10/21	63% 12/19
Over 9.5	38% 8/21	53% 10/19
Over 10.5	33% 7/21	47% 9/19
Cards
Cards	2.14	2.19
Opponent cards	2.52	2.00
Match total	4.66	4.19	4.45
Over 3.5	67% 14/21	67% 14/21
Over 4.5	57% 12/21	43% 9/21

	Espanyol	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.67
Corners conceded	5.10	4.89
Match total	9.60	9.56	9.59
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.10
Opponent cards	2.60	1.40
Match total	5.00	3.50	4.45
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 11 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.73league 4.18

Red cards0.00league 0.28

Cards 5+18%league 46%

Fouls26.0league 24.5

Penalties0.18league 0.36

Home wins82%league 48%

Espanyol2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W24 Nov 25H · Sevilla2–14
W31 Aug 25H · Osasuna1–02

Alaves1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W16 Aug 25H · Levante2–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.