Espanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were slight favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 58). Barcelona usually keep the ball (68% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Espanyol had 12 days of rest, Barcelona 13.2 and had to travel 8 km.
Away travel8 kmRest days12 · 13.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Espanyol18%
Draw24%
Barcelona58%
Espanyol18%
Draw23%
Barcelona58%
Espanyol17%
Draw24%
Barcelona59%
Espanyol14%
Draw21%
Barcelona65%
Espanyol19%
Draw24%
Barcelona57%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainVictor Garcia Verdura
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 32
Team strength
Espanyol
Barcelona
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
91
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
36
AttackIn forecast
97
51
DefenceIn forecast
92
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EspanyolBarcelona
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.83
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
2.29
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
82%
Scored inContext
100%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
12.24
ShotsContext
19.67
4.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.33
36%
On target shareContext
37%
7.82
Shots in the boxContext
11.94
64%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.53
12.41
Shots allowedContext
9.22
4.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.61
3.82
BlocksContext
2.67
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
80%
Save rateContext
69%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
342
PassesContext
639
270
Accurate passesContext
572
79%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.08
13.76
FoulsContext
10.00
12.06
Fouls sufferedContext
11.72
1.82
Yellow cardsContext
1.28
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
2.31
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
90%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.00
ShotsContext
18.10
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
37%
On target shareContext
35%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
67%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.90
Shots allowedContext
9.80
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.90
BlocksContext
2.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
81%
Save rateContext
61%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
68%
338
PassesContext
671
264
Accurate passesContext
600
78%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.07
14.30
FoulsContext
9.00
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
Rest12 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km927 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Barcelona
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel8 km499 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Dec | 13.2La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 8 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 927 km | 499 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
5F. Calero Villa
23O. El Hilali
10Pol Lozano
4Urko González
11Pere Milla
8Edu Expósito
24T. Dolan
9R. Fernández Jaén
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
3Alejandro Balde
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
23J. Koundé
21F. de Jong
24Eric García
14M. Rashford
11Raphinha
10Lamine Yamal
7Ferran Torres
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Espanyol+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Barcelona-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
2.11points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-2
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.11
Barcelona · Away
2.11points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-2
- Scored
- 2.56
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | Espanyol | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | W 2–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Getafe | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 1–0 A | W 4–2 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Alaves | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Elche | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 H | W 5–3 A |
| Girona | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Valencia | D 2–2 H | W 6–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Mallorca | W 3–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 33 of 51 · 1.94 per game | 43 of 51 · 2.53 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Espanyol wins2 draws4 Barcelona wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.17
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 15 May 2025Espanyol0–2Barcelona
- 3 Nov 2024Barcelona3–1Espanyol
- 14 May 2023Espanyol2–4Barcelona
- 31 Dec 2022Barcelona1–1Espanyol
- 13 Feb 2022Espanyol2–2Barcelona
- 20 Nov 2021Barcelona1–0Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 2.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 3.94 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 83% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 56% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 67% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 0% | |
| Games | 17 | 18 |
| Espanyol | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.00 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.24 | 6.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 8.95 | 11.42 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 41% 7/17 | 88% 15/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 7/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 6/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 1.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.76 | 2.78 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.17 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 12/17 | 50% 9/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 10/17 | 44% 8/18 | |
| Espanyol | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.00 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.20 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.10 | 4.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura Spain · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 4.13
Red cards0.19league 0.27
Cards 5+38%league 46%
Fouls25.2league 24.5
Penalties0.25league 0.33
Home wins38%league 47%
EspanyolNo previous matches with this referee.
BarcelonaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Espanyol17 games · scored 22 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
7
3
46-60
2
5
61-75
6
1
76-90
Barcelona18 games · scored 51 · conceded 20
11
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
10
7
31-45
8
46-60
8
1
61-75
10
4
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 12 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 28 · conceded 14
7
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
