Espanyol vs Elche – 25 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 10 Sat, Oct 25 · 15:15 RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat

Espanyol 6th · 15 pts · 9 played LDDLW

1–0Full time

Elche 7th · 14 pts · 9 played WDWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Espanyol were slight favourites.

Espanyol were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 40). Elche usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Espanyol had 7.8 days of rest, Elche 6.1 and had to travel 418 km.

Away travel418 kmRest days7.8 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Espanyol49%

Draw27%

Elche24%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.02

Espanyol51%

Draw25%

Elche24%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.07

Espanyol49%

Draw27%

Elche24%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.02

Espanyol42%

Draw28%

Elche30%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.14

Espanyol51%

Draw25%

Elche23%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.07

Over 2.5 48% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 35

Team strength

Espanyol

Elche

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 40

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

36 AttackIn forecast 39

51 DefenceIn forecast 51

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Espanyol

Elche

1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.22

1.22 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext +0.10

78% Scored inContext 89%

33% Clean sheetsContext 33%

13.33 ShotsContext 10.89

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

37% On target shareContext 37%

8.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.67

63% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.17

13.00 Shots allowedContext 11.11

4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11

3.67 BlocksContext 3.67

3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.11

77% Save rateContext 68%

41% PossessionIn forecast 59%

356 PassesContext 530

287 Accurate passesContext 465

81% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.92

14.00 FoulsContext 12.22

11.22 Fouls sufferedContext 15.44

1.56 Yellow cardsContext 2.11

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.22

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

80% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.80 ShotsContext 11.00

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

37% On target shareContext 37%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

63% Box shareContext 66%

12% ConversionContext 11%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.29

12.70 Shots allowedContext 11.40

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

3.60 BlocksContext 3.70

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10

79% Save rateContext 68%

42% PossessionIn forecast 60%

359 PassesContext 526

289 Accurate passesContext 458

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.91

13.80 FoulsContext 12.80

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Espanyol

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,377 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Elche

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel418 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Espanyol	Elche
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 17 Oct	6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	418 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,377 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13M. Dmitrović(G)

22Carlos Romero 6L. Cabrera 38C. Riedel 2Rubén Sánchez

8Edu Expósito 10Pol Lozano

11Pere Milla 18C. Pickel 17Jofre Carreras

9R. Fernández Jaén

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Elche Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

13Iñaki Peña(G)

21L. Pétrot 6Bigas 22D. Affengruber 15Alvaro Núñez

8Marc Aguado

10Rafa Mir 14Aleix Febas 16Martim Neto 11Germán Valera

9André Silva

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Espanyol Absences are shown before kick-off

Elche Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Espanyol+0.3 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Elche-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Espanyol · Home 2.00points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 1.40

Elche · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Espanyol	Elche
Oviedo	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 H
Real Betis	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Atletico Madrid	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Points	9 of 12 · 2.25 per game	6 of 12 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Espanyol wins2 draws1 Elche wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.50 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

19 Feb 2023Elche0–1Espanyol
23 Oct 2022Espanyol2–2Elche
10 Jan 2022Espanyol1–2Elche
23 Oct 2021Elche2–2Espanyol

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Espanyol	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	1.44	1.22
Conceded per game	1.22	1.00
Match goals	2.67	2.22	2.58
Over 1.5	78%	78%
Over 2.5	56%	33%	48%
Over 3.5	33%	22%
Both teams scored	56%	67%	51%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	22%	11%
Games	9	9

	Espanyol	Elche	Forecast
Scored per game	1.44	1.22
Conceded per game	1.22	1.00
Match goals	2.67	2.22	2.58
Over 1.5	78%	78%
Over 2.5	56%	33%	48%
Over 3.5	33%	22%
Both teams scored	56%	67%	51%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	22%	11%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Espanyol	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	4.11	3.56
Corners conceded	4.78	4.44
Match total	8.89	8.00	9.87
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.67	2.33
Opponent cards	2.33	2.33
Match total	4.00	4.66	4.35
Over 3.5	67% 6/9	78% 7/9
Over 4.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9

	Espanyol	Elche	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.90
Corners conceded	4.90	4.40
Match total	8.90	8.30	9.87
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.50
Opponent cards	2.30	2.40
Match total	4.10	4.90	4.35
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.54league 4.07

Red cards0.23league 0.28

Cards 5+31%league 45%

Fouls21.9league 24.8

Penalties0.23league 0.33

Home wins49%league 46%

Espanyol1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W18 Apr 25H · Getafe1–00

Elche

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.