Espanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Espanyol were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Espanyol had 15.1 days of rest, Mallorca 16 and had to travel 204 km.
Away travel204 kmRest days15.1 · 16Matches / 14d0 · 0
Espanyol45%
Draw28%
Mallorca26%
Espanyol47%
Draw26%
Mallorca27%
Espanyol45%
Draw28%
Mallorca26%
Espanyol38%
Draw29%
Mallorca33%
Espanyol47%
Draw26%
Mallorca27%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.6
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 111
Team strength
Espanyol
Mallorca
51
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
36
AttackIn forecast
50
51
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EspanyolMallorca
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
0.54
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
100%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.00
ShotsContext
8.33
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
36%
On target shareContext
40%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
57%
Box shareContext
77%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.00
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
3.33
BlocksContext
4.33
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
79%
Save rateContext
69%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
365
PassesContext
346
285
Accurate passesContext
274
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.58
14.00
FoulsContext
8.67
13.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
0.60
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
70%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.40
ShotsContext
8.10
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.33
32%
On target shareContext
26%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.89
64%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.56
14.00
Shots allowedContext
20.60
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.80
4.20
BlocksContext
5.80
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.50
77%
Save rateContext
81%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
350
PassesContext
383
279
Accurate passesContext
307
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.90
FoulsContext
12.20
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Mallorca
Rest16 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel204 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.1La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 16La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 204 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
5F. Calero Villa
23O. El Hilali
7Javi Puado
10Pol Lozano
4Urko González
24T. Dolan
11Pere Milla
9R. Fernández Jaén
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
4M. Kumbulla
21Raíllo
24M. Valjent
2Mateu Morey
20Pablo Torre
8Manu Morlanes
10Darder
7V. Muriqi
18Mateo Joseph
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Espanyol+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Mallorca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Mallorca · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Espanyol wins1 draws2 Mallorca wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 15 Mar 2025Mallorca2–1Espanyol
- 5 Oct 2024Espanyol2–1Mallorca
- 25 Feb 2023Espanyol2–1Mallorca
- 28 Oct 2022Mallorca1–1Espanyol
- 20 Mar 2022Espanyol1–0Mallorca
- 27 Aug 2021Mallorca1–0Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Espanyol | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.67 | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.67 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 5.34 | 8.00 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Espanyol | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 6.78 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.89 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.60 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 111 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.32league 3.75
Red cards0.27league 0.23
Cards 5+63%league 38%
Fouls25.5league 24.3
Penalties0.28league 0.30
Home wins36%league 45%
Espanyol8 with this referee
Record2-3-3
Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- W4 Apr 25A · Rayo Vallecano4–02
- L23 Nov 24A · Girona1–43
- L29 Sep 24A · Real Betis0–14
- W21 May 23A · Rayo Vallecano2–12
- L15 Apr 23A · Real Betis1–32
Mallorca6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.3.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 May 25H · Getafe1–22
- D9 Mar 25A · Athletic Club1–13
- L22 Apr 24A · Sevilla1–22
- W25 May 23H · Valencia1–04
- W5 Feb 23H · Real Madrid1–05
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Espanyol3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Mallorca3 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
