Espanyol vs Osasuna – 31 Aug 2025

La Liga Gameweek 3 Sun, Aug 31 · 18:30 RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat

Espanyol 9th · 4 pts · 2 played WD

1–0Full time

Osasuna 13th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 50). Espanyol had 7 days of rest, Osasuna 7.1 and had to travel 348 km.

Away travel348 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Espanyol37%

Draw29%

Osasuna34%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.17

Espanyol38%

Draw27%

Osasuna34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.29

Espanyol37%

Draw29%

Osasuna34%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.17

Espanyol31%

Draw29%

Osasuna41%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.31

Espanyol38%

Draw27%

Osasuna34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.29

Over 2.5 43% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa

Cards per match 1.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 1

Team strength

Espanyol

Osasuna

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 59

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

36 AttackIn forecast 50

51 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Osasuna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Espanyol

Osasuna

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 0.65

0.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98

+0.46 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

100% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.50 ShotsContext 9.00

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

35% On target shareContext 22%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext —

51% Box shareContext —

17% ConversionContext 6%

— OffsidesContext —

14.50 Shots allowedContext 11.00

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

4.00 BlocksContext 3.50

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

73% Save rateContext 83%

39% PossessionIn forecast 43%

346 PassesContext 376

268 Accurate passesContext 303

77% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.97

14.50 FoulsContext 13.00

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.50

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

0.99 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.30 ShotsContext 12.30

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

31% On target shareContext 31%

6.30 Shots in the boxContext 9.33

65% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.50

13.90 Shots allowedContext 12.70

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

4.40 BlocksContext 3.88

4.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

77% Save rateContext 79%

44% PossessionIn forecast 46%

350 PassesContext 382

278 Accurate passesContext 315

80% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.89 Team ratingContext 7.02

11.80 FoulsContext 13.30

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Espanyol

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km797 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Osasuna

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel348 km634 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Espanyol	Osasuna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug	7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	348 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	797 km	634 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	15.1	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13M. Dmitrović(G)

22Carlos Romero 6L. Cabrera 5F. Calero Villa 23O. El Hilali

8Edu Expósito 10Pol Lozano

7Javi Puado 11Pere Milla 24T. Dolan

19Kike García

Osasuna Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1Sergio Herrera(G)

3Juan Cruz 24Catena 22F. Boyomo

7Moncayola 16Moi Gómez 6Lucas Torró 19V. Rosier

10Aimar Oroz 17A. Budimir 21Víctor Muñoz

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Espanyol Absences are shown before kick-off

Osasuna Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Espanyol+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Osasuna+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Espanyol · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Osasuna · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Espanyol wins4 draws2 Osasuna wins

Goals per game0.33 – 0.83 Over 2.50% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 67%

18 May 2025Osasuna2–0Espanyol
14 Dec 2024Espanyol0–0Osasuna
4 Feb 2023Espanyol1–1Osasuna
20 Oct 2022Osasuna1–0Espanyol
8 May 2022Espanyol1–1Osasuna
14 Aug 2021Osasuna0–0Espanyol

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Espanyol	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.50
Conceded per game	1.50	0.50
Match goals	3.50	1.00	2.40
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	43%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	49%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	Espanyol	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.50
Conceded per game	1.50	0.50
Match goals	3.50	1.00	2.40
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	43%
Over 3.5	50%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	49%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Espanyol	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	1.50	3.00
Corners conceded	4.00	4.00
Match total	5.50	7.00	9.19
Over 8.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.50
Opponent cards	2.50	1.50
Match total	5.00	3.00	3.56
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Espanyol	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.33
Corners conceded	5.70	4.56
Match total	9.70	9.89	9.19
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.60
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	3.70	3.50	3.56
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 1 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards1.00league 3.28

Red cards0.00league 0.24

Cards 5+0%league 24%

Fouls27.0league 23.4

Penalties0.00league 0.31

Home wins100%league 45%

Espanyol

No previous matches with this referee.

Osasuna

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.