Espanyol vs Real Madrid – 22 Aug 2026

La Liga Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 22 · 20:30 Stage Front Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat

Espanyol 3rd · 3 pts · 1 played W

1–2Full time

Real Madrid

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid were slight favourites.

Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Espanyol. Espanyol had 6.1 days of rest, Real Madrid 91 and had to travel 497 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel497 kmRest days6.1 · 91Matches / 14d1 · 0

Espanyol19%

Draw22%

Real Madrid59%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.90

Espanyol18%

Draw22%

Real Madrid61%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.93

Espanyol20%

Draw22%

Real Madrid58%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.87

Espanyol14%

Draw19%

Real Madrid66%

Expected goals 0.88 – 2.13

Espanyol20%

Draw22%

Real Madrid58%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.87

Over 2.5 55% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)

25°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 2 km/h
Humidity 71%

Warm

RefereeJosé Sánchez

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 101

Team strength

Espanyol

Real Madrid

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 88

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

36 AttackIn forecast 89

51 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Espanyol

Real Madrid

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.09 xGVia Att/Def 1.59

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

60% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.80 ShotsContext 15.50

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

34% On target shareContext 39%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

54% Box shareContext 70%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.70

14.30 Shots allowedContext 14.20

5.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.80 BlocksContext 4.00

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

67% Save rateContext 74%

42% PossessionIn forecast 55%

327 PassesContext 530

251 Accurate passesContext 471

77% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.85 Team ratingContext 7.07

14.80 FoulsContext 10.20

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Espanyol W

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 62 · 3 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

W16 AugH · Levante3–01.4 xPts

Real Madrid

Rest91 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel497 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Espanyol	Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1La Liga 2026-2027, 16 Aug	91La Liga 2025-2026, 23 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	497 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13M. Dmitrović(G)

21Roger Hinojo 14Unai Núñez 5C. Riedel 23O. El Hilali

24T. Dolan 8Edu Expósito 4Urko González 22Álex Calatrava

28Javi Hernández 9R. Fernández Jaén

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1T. Courtois(G)

18Álvaro Fernández 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 24D. Dumfries

8F. Valverde 20Bernardo Silva

7Vinícius 5J. Bellingham 15A. Güler

10K. Mbappé

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Espanyol Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Madrid Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Espanyol-0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Real Madrid+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Espanyol · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.00

Real Madrid · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Espanyol wins0 draws6 Real Madrid wins

Goals per game0.75 – 2.38 Over 2.563% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 38%

3 May 2026Espanyol0–2Real Madrid
20 Sep 2025Real Madrid2–0Espanyol
1 Feb 2025Espanyol1–0Real Madrid
21 Sep 2024Real Madrid4–1Espanyol
11 Mar 2023Real Madrid3–1Espanyol
28 Aug 2022Espanyol1–3Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Espanyol	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	—
Conceded per game	0.00	—
Match goals	3.00	—	2.89
Over 1.5	100%	—
Over 2.5	100%	—	55%
Over 3.5	0%	—
Both teams scored	0%	—	53%
Clean sheets	100%	—
Failed to score	0%	—
Games	1	0

	Espanyol	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.70
Conceded per game	1.10	1.10
Match goals	2.10	2.80	2.89
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	55%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	53%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Espanyol	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.22
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	3.00	—
Opponent cards	0.00	—
Match total	3.00	—	6.00
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	—
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	—

	Espanyol	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	5.90
Corners conceded	5.78	5.20
Match total	10.22	11.10	9.22
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.00
Opponent cards	2.20	1.80
Match total	5.10	3.80	6.00
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · José Sánchez 101 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.22league 5.40

Red cards0.17league 0.30

Cards 5+66%league 70%

Fouls27.6league 28.3

Penalties0.25league 0.30

Home wins42%league 50%

Espanyol3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.7 Pens for · against2 · 1

W30 Nov 24H · Celta Vigo3–12
W30 Apr 23H · Getafe1–04
W31 Dec 21A · Valencia2–13

Real Madrid13 with this referee

Record9-2-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against4 · 0

L4 Dec 24A · Athletic Club1–23
L26 Oct 24H · Barcelona0–42
W22 Jan 23A · Athletic Club2–02
W16 Oct 22H · Barcelona3–12
W3 Sep 22H · Real Betis2–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.