Espanyol vs Sevilla – 24 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 13 Mon, Nov 24 · 20:00 RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat

Espanyol 6th · 18 pts · 12 played LWWLL

2–1Full time

Sevilla 9th · 16 pts · 12 played WLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Espanyol were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Sevilla. Espanyol had 16 days of rest, Sevilla 16.2 and had to travel 821 km.

Away travel821 kmRest days16 · 16.2Matches / 14d0 · 0

Espanyol44%

Draw28%

Sevilla28%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.08

Espanyol44%

Draw27%

Sevilla29%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.19

Espanyol42%

Draw28%

Sevilla29%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.10

Espanyol37%

Draw28%

Sevilla34%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.21

Espanyol46%

Draw26%

Sevilla28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.17

Over 2.5 46% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa

Cards per match 2.3
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 6

Team strength

Espanyol

Sevilla

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

36 AttackIn forecast 48

51 DefenceIn forecast 57

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Espanyol

Sevilla

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.58

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext +0.57

75% Scored inContext 92%

33% Clean sheetsContext 25%

13.83 ShotsContext 10.25

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.17

34% On target shareContext 31%

8.83 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

63% Box shareContext 65%

9% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 4.38

12.33 Shots allowedContext 11.08

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

3.42 BlocksContext 4.33

3.45 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

76% Save rateContext 75%

42% PossessionIn forecast 53%

366 PassesContext 412

298 Accurate passesContext 338

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.79

13.42 FoulsContext 15.58

11.58 Fouls sufferedContext 12.92

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 3.17

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

-0.53 Goals minus xGContext +0.53

70% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.30 ShotsContext 9.90

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.90

34% On target shareContext 29%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

66% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 15%

2.17 OffsidesContext 3.83

11.90 Shots allowedContext 11.10

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.30 BlocksContext 4.29

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

77% Save rateContext 76%

43% PossessionIn forecast 51%

370 PassesContext 395

304 Accurate passesContext 321

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.80

13.20 FoulsContext 16.50

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Espanyol

Rest16 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sevilla

Rest16.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel821 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Espanyol	Sevilla
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	16La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Nov	16.2La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	821 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13M. Dmitrović(G)

22Carlos Romero 6L. Cabrera 5F. Calero Villa 23O. El Hilali

14Ramon Terrats 8Edu Expósito 4Urko González 24T. Dolan

19Kike García 11Pere Milla

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Sevilla Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

12G. Suazo 23Marcão 32A. López Gallo 16Juanlu Sánchez

19B. Mendy 20M. Sow

11R. Vargas 14Peque Fernández 24A. Januzaj

9A. Adams

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Espanyol Absences are shown before kick-off

Sevilla Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Espanyol+1.8 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Sevilla-1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Espanyol · Home 1.86points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-2
Scored: 1.43
Conceded: 1.29

Sevilla · Away 1.50points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-3
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 8 this season

Opponent	Espanyol	Sevilla
Villarreal	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 H
Alaves	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 A
Elche	W 1–0 H	D 2–2 H
Girona	D 0–0 A	W 2–0 A
Mallorca	W 3–2 H	L 1–3 H
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 H
Real Sociedad	D 2–2 A	L 1–2 A
Atletico Madrid	W 2–1 H	L 0–3 A
Points	14 of 24 · 1.75 per game	10 of 24 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Espanyol wins2 draws4 Sevilla wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

25 Jan 2025Sevilla1–1Espanyol
25 Oct 2024Espanyol0–2Sevilla
4 May 2023Sevilla3–2Espanyol
10 Sep 2022Espanyol2–3Sevilla
20 Feb 2022Espanyol1–1Sevilla
25 Sep 2021Sevilla2–0Espanyol

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Espanyol	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.50
Conceded per game	1.25	1.58
Match goals	2.50	3.08	2.50
Over 1.5	75%	83%
Over 2.5	50%	75%	46%
Over 3.5	25%	33%
Both teams scored	50%	67%	51%
Clean sheets	33%	25%
Failed to score	25%	8%
Games	12	12

	Espanyol	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.50
Conceded per game	1.20	1.40
Match goals	2.30	2.90	2.50
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	51%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Espanyol	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	4.58
Corners conceded	4.00	5.58
Match total	8.25	10.16	9.73
Over 8.5	33% 4/12	67% 8/12
Over 9.5	33% 4/12	67% 8/12
Over 10.5	33% 4/12	50% 6/12
Cards
Cards	1.75	3.17
Opponent cards	2.42	1.92
Match total	4.17	5.09	4.28
Over 3.5	67% 8/12	67% 8/12
Over 4.5	50% 6/12	58% 7/12

	Espanyol	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	4.90
Corners conceded	4.00	5.40
Match total	8.80	10.30	9.73
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	3.40
Opponent cards	2.40	2.00
Match total	4.00	5.40	4.28
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 6 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.33league 4.03

Red cards0.00league 0.28

Cards 5+17%league 45%

Fouls26.0league 24.5

Penalties0.00league 0.34

Home wins83%league 47%

Espanyol1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W31 Aug 25H · Osasuna1–02

Sevilla

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.