Estac Troyes
Attack+4%
Defense risk+2%
Our take
Marseille were slight favourites.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 13). Absences weigh more on Marseille. Estac Troyes were without A. Ouzenadji and M. Ifnaoui. Marseille were without P. Højbjerg and T. Weah. Estac Troyes had 22 days of rest, Marseille 21 and had to travel 565 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel565 kmRest days22 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Estac Troyes23%
Draw22%
Marseille55%
Estac Troyes22%
Draw24%
Marseille55%
Estac Troyes21%
Draw22%
Marseille56%
Estac Troyes17%
Draw20%
Marseille62%
Estac Troyes24%
Draw22%
Marseille54%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Troyes)
12°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 5 km/h
- Humidity 78%
RefereeGuillaume Paradis
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.05
- Matches 19
Team strength
Estac Troyes
Marseille
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
12
AttackIn forecast
48
19
DefenceIn forecast
46
21
Form indexContext
10
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack+39%
Defense risk−34%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Estac TroyesMarseille
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.54
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
40%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.60
ShotsContext
13.20
2.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
18%
On target shareContext
38%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
74%
Box shareContext
62%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.25
13.80
Shots allowedContext
17.00
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.20
2.80
BlocksContext
5.25
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
57%
Save rateContext
74%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
360
PassesContext
581
285
Accurate passesContext
516
79%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.80
FoulsContext
9.60
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
—
Goals minus xGContext
-0.45
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.50
ShotsContext
14.90
2.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
24%
On target shareContext
37%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
64%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.30
OffsidesContext
1.43
17.80
Shots allowedContext
15.70
6.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.80
BlocksContext
4.33
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
65%
Save rateContext
67%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
354
PassesContext
520
284
Accurate passesContext
453
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.80
FoulsContext
11.70
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estac Troyes
DWLLL
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 4 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
Marseille
LLLLL
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel565 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 10 · 0 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · -6.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estac Troyes |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22Ligue 1 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 21Ligue 1 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 565 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estac Troyes
Confirmed XI
33P. Beach(G)
5P. Gozzi
4M. Diaz
6A. Monfray
2L. Maronnier
29D. Karim
8M. Diop
7K. Diawara
11I. Gomis
17A. Mille
9J. Le Douaron
Marseille
Confirmed XI
12J. de Lange(G)
33Emerson
21N. Aguerd
4C. Egan-Riley
74K. Bezahaf
8H. Abdelli
14Igor Paixão
7A. Gomes
77A. Harit
9A. Gouiri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estac Troyes
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals
Attack line −6.4% · Defence line −20.1% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Ouzenadji Starter 6.55 Def −15.1%
- MID M. Ifnaoui Starter 6.53 Att −6.2% Def −4.0%
- DEF Y. Titi Rotation 6.60 Def −0.9%
- MID Y. Kone Depth 6.32 Att −0.2% Def −0.1%
Marseille
Scores -0.09 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −45.7% · Defence line −30.8% of weighted minutes
- MID P. Højbjerg Starter 7.14 Att −13.2% Def −14.2%
- MID T. Weah Starter 6.61 Att −11.2% Def −12.0%
- ATT A. Gouiri Starter 6.91 Att −19.4%
- MID G. Kondogbia Rotation 6.90 Att −1.9% Def −2.0%
- DEF D. Cornelius Rotation 6.21 Def −2.6%
Total impact vs full squads
- Estac Troyes+1.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Marseille-1.6 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Estac Troyes · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Marseille · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Estac Troyes | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | L 2–6 H | W 4–0 H |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 H | L 2–3 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Estac Troyes wins1 draws3 Marseille wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.75
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 16 Apr 2023Marseille3–1Estac Troyes
- 11 Jan 2023Estac Troyes0–2Marseille
- 27 Feb 2022Estac Troyes1–1Marseille
- 28 Nov 2021Marseille1–0Estac Troyes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estac Troyes | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Estac Troyes | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 30% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estac Troyes | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.75 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.75 | 9.00 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.20 | 4.00 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Estac Troyes | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 9.78 | 9.96 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 4.20 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillaume Paradis 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.53league 3.21
Red cards0.11league 0.15
Cards 5+37%league 26%
Fouls24.6league 23.6
Penalties0.05league 0.32
Home wins37%league 47%
Estac Troyes1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L6 Sep 26H · Strasbourg2–61
MarseilleNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estac Troyes5 games · scored 4 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
1
4
76-90
Marseille5 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Estac Troyes10 games · scored 8 · conceded 22
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
3
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
31-45
4
7
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
