Estac Troyes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Strasbourg were slight favourites.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estac Troyes. Estac Troyes had 7.8 days of rest, Strasbourg 7.9 and had to travel 272 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel272 kmRest days7.8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Estac Troyes27%
Draw24%
Strasbourg49%
Estac Troyes22%
Draw24%
Strasbourg54%
Estac Troyes26%
Draw24%
Strasbourg50%
Estac Troyes21%
Draw22%
Strasbourg56%
Estac Troyes28%
Draw24%
Strasbourg48%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Troyes)
Warm
29°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 31%
RefereeGuillaume Paradis
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.06
- Matches 17
Team strength
Estac Troyes
Strasbourg
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
12
AttackIn forecast
40
19
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Estac TroyesStrasbourg
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.38
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
50%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
10.50
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
20%
On target shareContext
43%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
84%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
—
12.50
Shots allowedContext
15.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.50
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
71%
Save rateContext
67%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
389
PassesContext
391
311
Accurate passesContext
337
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.63
9.50
FoulsContext
11.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.94
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
7.40
ShotsContext
10.00
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
38%
On target shareContext
39%
5.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
68%
Box shareContext
57%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
21.10
Shots allowedContext
18.40
7.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.80
4.90
BlocksContext
4.60
5.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.90
73%
Save rateContext
72%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
357
PassesContext
449
287
Accurate passesContext
387
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.76
8.40
FoulsContext
10.40
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estac Troyes
DW
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 55 · 4 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estac Troyes |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 272 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,115 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estac Troyes
Confirmed XI
33P. Beach(G)
3A. Ouzenadji
4M. Diaz
6A. Monfray
2L. Maronnier
8M. Diop
22H. Picard
29D. Karim
17A. Mille
10M. Ifnaoui
20R. Ripart
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
1F. Jørgensen(G)
36Oso
6I. Doukouré
4J. Mitchell
16Genesis Antwi
80Gessime Yassine
21Pape Diop
23Diogo Sousa
30J. Ortega
11A. Nanasi
10G. Reyna
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estac Troyes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estac Troyes+0.9 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Strasbourg-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estac Troyes · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Strasbourg · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Estac Troyes wins3 draws0 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 21 May 2023Estac Troyes1–1Strasbourg
- 2 Jan 2023Strasbourg2–3Estac Troyes
- 17 Apr 2022Estac Troyes1–1Strasbourg
- 22 Aug 2021Strasbourg1–1Estac Troyes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estac Troyes | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 3.50 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Estac Troyes | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 4.10 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 90% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 2 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estac Troyes | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.00 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 1.50 | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Estac Troyes | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.20 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 11.70 | 9.89 | 10.20 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillaume Paradis 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.04
Red cards0.12league 0.17
Cards 5+41%league 17%
Fouls24.5league 22.8
Penalties0.06league 0.46
Home wins35%league 29%
Estac TroyesNo previous matches with this referee.
Strasbourg1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W5 Oct 25H · Angers5–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estac Troyes2 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Strasbourg2 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Estac Troyes10 games · scored 9 · conceded 18
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
