Estac Troyes
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Estac Troyes26.5%fair odds 3.78
Draw25.4%fair odds 3.94
Strasbourg48.1%fair odds 2.08
Expected goals1.19 – 1.67total 2.86
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Strasbourg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Estac Troyes ↓ · Strasbourg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Estac Troyes goals, columns Strasbourg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.35
- 1–29.5%10.51
- 0–19.0%11.13
- 0–28.0%12.47
- 2–16.7%14.82
- 0–06.3%15.78
- 1–06.2%16.13
- 2–25.6%17.72
- 1–35.3%18.85
- 0–34.5%22.36
Winning margin
3.4%
Estac Troyes by 3+
fair 29.02
7.5%
Estac Troyes by 2
fair 13.41
15.6%
Estac Troyes by 1
fair 6.42
25.4%
Draw
fair 3.94
22.2%
Strasbourg by 1
fair 4.50
14.8%
Strasbourg by 2
fair 6.74
11.1%
Strasbourg by 3+
fair 9.02
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Estac Troyes goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Strasbourg goals
19%0
31%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes win | 26.5% | 27.4% | -0.9 pp |
| Draw | 25.4% | 25.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Strasbourg win | 48.1% | 47.6% | +0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 56.5% | -2.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.0% | 58.8% | -1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Estac Troyes | 1.19 | 1.24 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Strasbourg | 1.67 | 1.70 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Estac Troyes win26.5%3.78
- Draw25.4%3.94
- Strasbourg win48.1%2.08
- Double chance Estac Troyes or draw51.9%1.93
- Double chance Estac Troyes or Strasbourg74.6%1.34
- Double chance Strasbourg or draw73.5%1.36
- Draw no bet Estac Troyes35.5%2.82
- Draw no bet Strasbourg64.5%1.55
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.5%1.27
- Over 2.554.4%1.84
- Over 3.532.1%3.11
- Over 4.516.2%6.19
- Under 1.521.5%4.65
- Under 2.545.6%2.20
- Under 3.567.9%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes57.0%1.75
- No43.0%2.33
- Yes and over 2.545.0%2.22
- Estac Troyes win and yes14.0%7.12
- Draw and yes19.0%5.25
- Strasbourg win and yes23.9%4.18
Team goals
- Estac Troyes over 0.569.5%1.44
- Estac Troyes over 1.533.2%3.01
- Estac Troyes over 2.511.8%8.51
- Strasbourg over 0.581.2%1.23
- Strasbourg over 1.549.8%2.01
- Strasbourg over 2.523.6%4.25
- Estac Troyes clean sheet18.8%5.33
- Strasbourg clean sheet30.5%3.27
- Estac Troyes win to nil12.4%8.04
- Strasbourg win to nil24.2%4.13
Handicap
- Estac Troyes −1.510.9%9.17
- Estac Troyes −2.53.4%29.02
- Strasbourg +1.589.1%1.12
- Strasbourg +2.596.6%1.04
- Strasbourg −1.525.9%3.86
- Estac Troyes +1.574.1%1.35
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored24
Favourite won45.8%
Avg chance given to result35.5%
1X2 Brier0.697
Over 2.5 called right62.5%
BTTS called right54.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.3% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 45.3% | 54.5% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 55.0% | 25.0% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 66.0% | 50.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 70.3% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 15 of 24 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.7582 | 0.7468 |
| Avg chance given to result | 33.0% | 33.0% |
| Favourite won | 40.0% | 33.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 15 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 24 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.