Estoril vs Arouca – 7 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 5 Mon, Sep 7 · 20:15 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril 17th · 1 pts · 4 played DLLL

0–0Full time

Arouca 5th · 9 pts · 4 played WWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Arouca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Arouca. Estoril had 7 days of rest, Arouca 9.2 and had to travel 266 km.

Away travel266 kmRest days7 · 9.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Estoril36%

Draw26%

Arouca37%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.33

Estoril38%

Draw26%

Arouca36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.32

Estoril36%

Draw26%

Arouca37%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.33

Estoril30%

Draw26%

Arouca45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.50

Estoril37%

Draw26%

Arouca37%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.34

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Estoril)

No weather data yet

RefereeFábio Veríssimo

Cards per match 5.9
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 62

Team strength

Estoril

Arouca

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

21 AttackIn forecast 28

29 DefenceIn forecast 37

14 Form indexContext 72

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estoril

Arouca

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.75

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.56 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

-0.36 Goals minus xGContext +0.53

50% Scored inContext 75%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.25 ShotsContext 10.00

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

36% On target shareContext 40%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

63% Box shareContext 64%

4% ConversionContext 18%

— OffsidesContext 1.67

13.50 Shots allowedContext 16.00

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

6.33 BlocksContext 4.00

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

57% Save rateContext 83%

45% PossessionIn forecast 48%

376 PassesContext 445

302 Accurate passesContext 375

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.79 Team ratingContext 7.00

12.00 FoulsContext 8.25

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.75

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.13

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.57

60% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.80 ShotsContext 11.10

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

35% On target shareContext 34%

6.22 Shots in the boxContext 6.20

59% Box shareContext 55%

6% ConversionContext 15%

2.40 OffsidesContext 1.75

12.50 Shots allowedContext 12.80

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

4.38 BlocksContext 3.80

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

59% Save rateContext 70%

50% PossessionIn forecast 50%

425 PassesContext 439

349 Accurate passesContext 370

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.88

12.50 FoulsContext 11.00

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril DLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km43 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · -3.4 vs expected

L31 AugA · Benfica1–20.2 xPts
L22 AugH · Rio Ave0–21.7 xPts
L16 AugA · Nacional0–21.3 xPts
D7 AugH · Famalicao1–11.2 xPts

Arouca WWLW

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel266 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 72 · 9 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected

W29 AugH · Maritimo2–11.9 xPts
L23 AugA · FC Porto0–20.6 xPts
W16 AugH · Moreirense4–01.8 xPts
W8 AugA · Guimaraes1–01.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	Arouca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 31 Aug	9.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 29 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	266 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	43 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Joel Robles(G)

3Fernando Medrano 15Isma Sierra 4Ferro 2Ricard Sánchez

10J. Holsgrove 5A. Tsoungui

98Fabrício Garcia 12João Carvalho 7André Lacximicant

14Y. Begraoui

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12I. de Arruabarrena(G)

18O. Lebedenko 3José Fontán 5B. Popović 28Tiago Esgaio

8T. Fukui 6E. van Ee

7N. Djouahra 10Pablo Gozálbez 19A. Trezza

17Barbero

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estoril+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Arouca+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.50

Arouca · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Estoril wins1 draws4 Arouca wins

Goals per game2.13 – 2.00 Over 2.563% Both scored75% Clean sheets13% · 13%

6 Apr 2026Arouca3–2Estoril
7 Nov 2025Estoril4–3Arouca
16 Mar 2025Arouca1–1Estoril
26 Oct 2024Estoril4–1Arouca
20 Jan 2024Estoril1–2Arouca
13 Aug 2023Arouca4–3Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	1.75
Conceded per game	1.75	0.75
Match goals	2.25	2.50	2.65
Over 1.5	100%	75%
Over 2.5	25%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	0%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	25%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	25%
Games	4	4

	Estoril	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.70
Conceded per game	1.70	1.00
Match goals	2.30	2.70	2.65
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	2.75
Corners conceded	5.33	5.75
Match total	11.00	8.50	8.55
Over 8.5	100% 3/3	25% 1/4
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	1.75	2.50
Opponent cards	1.25	2.00
Match total	3.00	4.50	4.00
Over 3.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4

	Estoril	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	3.40
Corners conceded	5.38	5.50
Match total	9.88	8.90	8.55
Over 8.5	75% 6/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.90
Opponent cards	1.60	1.70
Match total	3.60	4.60	4.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fábio Veríssimo 62 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.61league 3.83

Red cards0.27league 0.15

Cards 5+71%league 34%

Fouls27.9league 25.1

Penalties0.37league 0.29

Home wins34%league 41%

Estoril3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

L13 Apr 24H · SC Braga0–10
L4 Feb 23H · Guimaraes0–11
D1 Oct 22A · Chaves1–13

Arouca4 with this referee

Record0-1-3 Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L9 Dec 24A · Estrela1–22
L6 Jan 24H · Benfica0–32
L19 Feb 23A · SC Braga0–24
D18 Sep 22H · Guimaraes2–26

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.