Estoril vs Benfica – 16 May 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 34 Sat, May 16 · 20:30 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril 10th · 39 pts · 33 played LLLDD

1–3Full time

Benfica 3rd · 77 pts · 33 played WWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica were clear favourites.

Benfica were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 30). Estoril had 6 days of rest, Benfica 5 and had to travel 22 km.

Away travel22 kmRest days6 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 1

Estoril15%

Draw22%

Benfica63%

Expected goals 0.89 – 2.01

Estoril16%

Draw22%

Benfica62%

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.98

Estoril15%

Draw22%

Benfica63%

Expected goals 0.89 – 2.01

Estoril11%

Draw19%

Benfica70%

Expected goals 0.80 – 2.25

Estoril15%

Draw21%

Benfica63%

Expected goals 0.91 – 2.05

Over 2.5 55% Both score 52% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Estoril)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 63

Team strength

Estoril

Benfica

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 82

21 AttackIn forecast 81

29 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Benfica

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estoril

Benfica

1.61 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.15

1.64 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.73

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.91

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.81

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

70% Scored inContext 94%

15% Clean sheetsContext 42%

11.00 ShotsContext 16.45

3.85 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.79

35% On target shareContext 35%

7.06 Shots in the boxContext 11.03

62% Box shareContext 67%

15% ConversionContext 13%

1.61 OffsidesContext 2.08

11.55 Shots allowedContext 8.88

4.31 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.23

2.79 BlocksContext 2.42

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.66

62% Save rateContext 79%

53% PossessionIn forecast 58%

433 PassesContext 471

356 Accurate passesContext 400

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.80 Team ratingContext 7.01

12.70 FoulsContext 10.70

12.33 Fouls sufferedContext 15.48

2.42 Yellow cardsContext 1.94

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.12

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.75 xGVia Att/Def 1.94

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

60% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.90 ShotsContext 16.50

2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

29% On target shareContext 30%

5.11 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

54% Box shareContext 73%

8% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.29

11.40 Shots allowedContext 11.60

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.44 BlocksContext 2.70

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

66% Save rateContext 78%

54% PossessionIn forecast 55%

454 PassesContext 431

380 Accurate passesContext 357

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.94

14.00 FoulsContext 10.70

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 15.60

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.30

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km730 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Benfica

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel22 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	Benfica
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 10 May	5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	22 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	730 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	83	67.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Confirmed XI

4-3-1-2

1Joel Robles(G)

20Gonçalo Costa 4Ferro 25F. Bacher 2Ricard Sánchez

8Xeka 10J. Holsgrove 12João Carvalho

21Pizzi

14Y. Begraoui 19André Lacximicant

Benfica Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 30N. Otamendi 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah

20Richard Ríos 8F. Aursnes

21A. Schjelderup 27Rafa 25G. Prestianni

14V. Pavlidis

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Benfica Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estoril+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Benfica+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home 1.44points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 6-5-5
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.44

Benfica · Away 2.38points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 11-5-0
Scored: 1.88
Conceded: 0.69

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Estoril	Benfica
Alverca	D 1–1 AW 4–1 H	W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
SC Braga	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Famalicao	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H
Moreirense	L 0–1 AD 3–3 H	W 4–1 HW 4–0 A
FC Porto	L 1–3 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 HD 0–0 A
Arouca	L 2–3 AW 4–3 H	W 2–1 AW 5–0 H
Rio Ave	L 1–2 HW 4–0 A	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H
Nacional	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H	W 2–0 HW 2–1 A
Casa Pia	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
Sporting CP	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
GIL Vicente	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H
AVS	L 0–3 AW 3–1 H	W 3–0 HW 3–0 A
Tondela	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
Santa Clara	W 4–2 AL 0–1 H	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H
Guimaraes	W 4–2 HL 2–3 A	W 3–0 HW 3–0 A
Estrela	W 5–0 AD 1–1 H	W 4–0 HW 1–0 A
Points	39 of 96 · 1.22 per game	74 of 96 · 2.31 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

0 Estoril wins0 draws7 Benfica wins

Goals per game0.57 – 2.57 Over 2.571% Both scored57% Clean sheets0% · 43%

3 Jan 2026Benfica3–1Estoril
3 May 2025Estoril1–2Benfica
23 Dec 2024Benfica3–0Estoril
10 Mar 2024Benfica3–1Estoril
7 Oct 2023Estoril0–1Benfica
23 Apr 2023Benfica1–0Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	1.61	2.15
Conceded per game	1.64	0.73
Match goals	3.24	2.88	2.90
Over 1.5	76%	88%
Over 2.5	61%	70%	55%
Over 3.5	52%	30%
Both teams scored	58%	58%	52%
Clean sheets	15%	42%
Failed to score	30%	6%
Games	33	33

	Estoril	Benfica	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	2.20
Conceded per game	1.50	1.10
Match goals	2.20	3.30	2.90
Over 1.5	60%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	80%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	7.28
Corners conceded	4.80	2.59
Match total	9.23	9.87	9.37
Over 8.5	53% 16/30	66% 21/32
Over 9.5	40% 12/30	53% 17/32
Over 10.5	33% 10/30	38% 12/32
Cards
Cards	2.42	2.12
Opponent cards	2.18	2.94
Match total	4.60	5.06	5.06
Over 3.5	82% 27/33	70% 23/33
Over 4.5	55% 18/33	61% 20/33

	Estoril	Benfica	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	8.60
Corners conceded	4.67	3.30
Match total	8.67	11.90	9.37
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.10
Opponent cards	2.30	3.10
Match total	4.50	5.20	5.06
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 63 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.10league 4.78

Red cards0.27league 0.24

Cards 5+46%league 57%

Fouls25.6league 26.6

Penalties0.24league 0.43

Home wins41%league 41%

Estoril6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

W1 Nov 25A · Rio Ave4–01
D8 Apr 24A · Casa Pia0–02
L13 Jan 24H · Moreirense1–32
D17 Dec 23A · Famalicao1–11
L1 Oct 23A · Guimaraes2–35

Benfica7 with this referee

Record4-3-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.9 Pens for · against1 · 1

D5 Oct 25A · FC Porto0–02
D17 May 25A · SC Braga1–12
W28 Mar 25A · GIL Vicente3–02
W7 Dec 24H · Guimaraes1–03
W28 Sep 24H · GIL Vicente5–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.