Estoril vs Famalicao – 7 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 1 Fri, Aug 7 · 20:15 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril

1–1Full time

Famalicao

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Famalicao were slight favourites.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Famalicao. Estoril had 83 days of rest, Famalicao 83 and had to travel 310 km.

Away travel310 kmRest days83 · 83Matches / 14d0 · 0

Estoril31%

Draw26%

Famalicao43%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.46

Estoril35%

Draw26%

Famalicao39%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.39

Estoril31%

Draw26%

Famalicao43%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.46

Estoril25%

Draw25%

Famalicao50%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.64

Estoril31%

Draw26%

Famalicao43%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.44

Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Estoril)

No weather data yet

RefereeMiguel Fonseca

Cards per match 5.8
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 5

Team strength

Estoril

Famalicao

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

21 AttackIn forecast 24

29 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estoril

Famalicao

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

0.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.60 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.62

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

9.60 ShotsContext 11.70

2.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

29% On target shareContext 39%

5.78 Shots in the boxContext 8.22

55% Box shareContext 65%

8% ConversionContext 11%

1.71 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.90 Shots allowedContext 7.70

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

2.67 BlocksContext 2.11

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

63% Save rateContext 85%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

450 PassesContext 416

374 Accurate passesContext 350

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.97

13.30 FoulsContext 11.80

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 15.30

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril

Rest83 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Famalicao

Rest83 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel310 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	83Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May	83Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	310 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	8.8	9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Joel Robles(G)

3Fernando Medrano 15Isma Sierra 4Ferro 2Ricard Sánchez

5A. Tsoungui 8Xeka

7André Lacximicant 12João Carvalho 99R. Guitane

14Y. Begraoui

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 4F. van Breemen 3L. Realpe 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 10Pedro Santos 23Gil Dias

70G. Koutsias

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estoril+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Famalicao+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home No home games yet this season.

Famalicao · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Estoril wins1 draws4 Famalicao wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.38 Over 2.538% Both scored25% Clean sheets25% · 50%

26 Apr 2026Estoril0–1Famalicao
14 Dec 2025Famalicao4–0Estoril
12 Apr 2025Famalicao3–0Estoril
1 Dec 2024Estoril2–1Famalicao
28 Apr 2024Estoril1–0Famalicao
17 Dec 2023Famalicao1–1Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.68
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	50%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	54%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Estoril	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.30
Conceded per game	1.50	0.80
Match goals	2.30	2.10	2.68
Over 1.5	60%	50%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	Famalicao
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Estoril	Famalicao
Corners
Corners won	4.11	5.44
Corners conceded	5.22	4.33
Match total	9.33	9.77
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.40
Opponent cards	2.30	2.60
Match total	4.50	5.00
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Fonseca 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.60

Red cards0.20

Cards 5+80%

Fouls37.2

Penalties0.20

Home wins60%

Estoril3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 1

L12 Apr 25A · Famalicao0–34
D15 Feb 25A · Nacional2–23
W18 Jan 25A · Santa Clara3–22

Famalicao1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W12 Apr 25H · Estoril3–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.