Estrela vs Alverca – 25 Aug 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 3 Mon, Aug 25 · 20:15 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 13th · 1 pts · 2 played DL

2–2Full time

Alverca 16th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Alverca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 16). Estrela had 9 days of rest, Alverca 8.1 and had to travel 23 km.

Away travel23 kmRest days9 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Estrela35%

Draw29%

Alverca36%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.21

Estrela36%

Draw27%

Alverca37%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.35

Estrela35%

Draw29%

Alverca36%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.20

Estrela29%

Draw29%

Alverca43%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.35

Estrela35%

Draw27%

Alverca37%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.36

Over 2.5 43% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Amadora)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalRicardo Baixinho

Cards per match 6.9
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 29

Team strength

Estrela

Alverca

16 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

24 AttackIn forecast 38

27 DefenceIn forecast 42

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alverca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estrela

Alverca

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82

-0.81 Goals minus xGContext -0.72

50% Scored inContext 50%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.00 ShotsContext 8.00

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50

29% On target shareContext 31%

4.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.00

39% Box shareContext 60%

4% ConversionContext 6%

2.00 OffsidesContext —

10.00 Shots allowedContext 11.00

2.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

4.00 BlocksContext 3.50

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

100% Save rateContext 44%

39% PossessionIn forecast 38%

261 PassesContext 323

194 Accurate passesContext 251

74% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.65

13.00 FoulsContext 10.00

17.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

0.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def —

1.01 xGVia Att/Def —

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.61 Goals minus xGContext —

30% Scored inContext —

20% Clean sheetsContext —

10.20 ShotsContext —

3.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

28% On target shareContext —

5.30 Shots in the boxContext —

54% Box shareContext —

4% ConversionContext —

2.60 OffsidesContext —

13.80 Shots allowedContext —

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

4.44 BlocksContext —

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext —

73% Save rateContext —

44% PossessionIn forecast —

281 PassesContext —

206 Accurate passesContext —

73% Pass accuracyContext —

6.85 Team ratingContext —

14.70 FoulsContext —

15.40 Fouls sufferedContext —

3.00 Yellow cardsContext —

0.10 Red cardsContext —

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alverca

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel23 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	Alverca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 Aug	8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 17 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	23 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Confirmed XI

5-3-2

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

7Fábio Ronaldo 79A. Chernev 14Bernardo Schappo 30Luan Patrick 55Sidny Lopes Cabral

11Jovane Cabral 19Paulo Moreira 99A. Marcus

10I. Stoica 89J. Gastao

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Alverca Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13André Gomes(G)

33B. Meupiyou 5Sergi Gómez 4Kaiky Naves

12Isaac James 16Tomás Mendes 8Alexsandro Amorim 2Zoubdi

10Chiquinho 9M. Milovanović 11Cedric Nuozzi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Alverca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estrela-0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Alverca+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Alverca · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	0.50
Conceded per game	1.00	2.50
Match goals	1.50	3.00	2.39
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	43%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	49%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	2	2

	Estrela	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	0.50
Conceded per game	1.00	2.50
Match goals	1.50	3.00	2.39
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	43%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	49%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	2	2

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	2.00
Corners conceded	4.00	6.00
Match total	8.50	8.00	9.67
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.50
Opponent cards	3.50	2.00
Match total	5.50	3.50	4.76
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2

	Estrela	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	2.00
Corners conceded	4.90	6.00
Match total	8.90	8.00	9.67
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.20	1.50
Opponent cards	2.40	2.00
Match total	5.60	3.50	4.76
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	0% 0/2

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo Baixinho Portugal · 29 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.45league 4.88

Red cards0.45league 0.13

Cards 5+79%league 58%

Fouls30.9league 27.6

Penalties0.24league 0.33

Home wins45%league 42%

Estrela3 with this referee

Record0-3-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

D11 Aug 24A · SC Braga1–15
D7 Apr 24A · Moreirense2–23
D24 Sep 23A · Chaves2–24

Alverca

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.