Estrela vs Famalicao – 11 May 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 33 Mon, May 11 · 20:15 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 15th · 28 pts · 32 played LLLLL

0–0Full time

Famalicao 5th · 52 pts · 32 played DDDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Famalicao were slight favourites.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estrela. Estrela had 9.2 days of rest, Famalicao 9.1 and had to travel 301 km.

Away travel301 kmRest days9.2 · 9.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Estrela27%

Draw28%

Famalicao46%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.44

Estrela25%

Draw26%

Famalicao50%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.64

Estrela27%

Draw28%

Famalicao46%

Expected goals 1.04 – 1.44

Estrela21%

Draw26%

Famalicao53%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.62

Estrela27%

Draw27%

Famalicao46%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.52

Over 2.5 45% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Amadora)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.45
Matches 20

Team strength

Estrela

Famalicao

16 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

24 AttackIn forecast 24

27 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estrela

Famalicao

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.28

1.69 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.91

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.26

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

56% Scored inContext 75%

22% Clean sheetsContext 47%

10.88 ShotsContext 11.88

3.65 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.43

33% On target shareContext 35%

5.91 Shots in the boxContext 8.27

53% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.23 OffsidesContext 1.63

12.91 Shots allowedContext 10.28

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.77

4.03 BlocksContext 2.61

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

65% Save rateContext 80%

48% PossessionIn forecast 51%

348 PassesContext 391

281 Accurate passesContext 321

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.93

13.88 FoulsContext 15.72

14.94 Fouls sufferedContext 16.28

2.53 Yellow cardsContext 2.56

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.67

-0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

50% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.60 ShotsContext 12.60

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

31% On target shareContext 40%

7.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.33

59% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 11%

2.88 OffsidesContext 1.80

12.30 Shots allowedContext 8.60

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

4.78 BlocksContext 2.10

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

63% Save rateContext 89%

50% PossessionIn forecast 53%

368 PassesContext 414

300 Accurate passesContext 343

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.97

12.80 FoulsContext 13.40

15.80 Fouls sufferedContext 16.50

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km605 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Famalicao

Rest9.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel301 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	Famalicao
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 May	9.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	301 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	605 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.9	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Confirmed XI

4-4-2

40Renan Ribeiro(G)

24B. Langa 4S. Leković 30Luan Patrick 17Jefferson Encada

10I. Stoica 19Paulo Moreira 63A. Sola 99A. Marcus

9Rodrigo Pinho 11Jovane Cabral

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-3-3

25L. Carević(G)

5Rafa Soares 16J. de Haas 3L. Realpe 2Gustavo Garcia

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi 20Gustavo Sá

7Sorriso 12S. Elisor 23Gil Dias

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estrela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Famalicao+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 1.06points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 4-5-7
Scored: 1.31
Conceded: 1.50

Famalicao · Away 1.50points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 6-6-4
Scored: 0.94
Conceded: 1.06

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Estrela	Famalicao
Moreirense	L 2–3 AD 0–0 H	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A
FC Porto	L 1–2 HL 1–3 A	D 2–2 AL 0–1 H
Arouca	L 0–1 AW 3–1 H	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Sporting CP	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Nacional	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A
Casa Pia	W 4–0 HW 5–3 A	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Rio Ave	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	D 0–0 AD 0–0 H
GIL Vicente	D 2–2 HL 0–2 A	L 0–5 AD 0–0 H
AVS	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	W 3–1 HW 1–0 A
Tondela	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A	W 3–0 HW 1–0 A
Guimaraes	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H	W 2–1 AW 2–0 H
Santa Clara	W 1–0 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Alverca	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	L 0–1 A
Benfica	L 0–4 AL 0–1 H	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Estoril	L 0–5 HD 1–1 A	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H
SC Braga	D 3–3 H	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H
Points	25 of 93 · 0.81 per game	52 of 93 · 1.68 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Estrela wins2 draws1 Famalicao wins

Goals per game0.80 – 1.00 Over 2.540% Both scored20% Clean sheets60% · 60%

27 Dec 2025Famalicao2–3Estrela
25 Jan 2025Famalicao0–0Estrela
19 Aug 2024Estrela0–3Famalicao
16 Mar 2024Famalicao0–0Estrela
29 Oct 2023Estrela1–0Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	1.28
Conceded per game	1.69	0.91
Match goals	2.81	2.19	2.48
Over 1.5	75%	56%
Over 2.5	53%	41%	45%
Over 3.5	38%	25%
Both teams scored	47%	38%	50%
Clean sheets	22%	47%
Failed to score	44%	25%
Games	32	32

	Estrela	Famalicao	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.40
Conceded per game	1.50	0.80
Match goals	2.50	2.20	2.48
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	45%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.77
Corners conceded	5.19	5.00
Match total	9.19	9.77	9.36
Over 8.5	48% 13/27	61% 19/31
Over 9.5	41% 11/27	48% 15/31
Over 10.5	37% 10/27	42% 13/31
Cards
Cards	2.66	2.63
Opponent cards	2.78	2.34
Match total	5.44	4.97	5.11
Over 3.5	78% 25/32	69% 22/32
Over 4.5	72% 23/32	56% 18/32

	Estrela	Famalicao	League
Corners
Corners won	5.13	5.00
Corners conceded	5.00	4.56
Match total	10.13	9.56	9.36
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.70
Opponent cards	3.10	2.70
Match total	5.50	5.40	5.11
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 20 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.15league 4.83

Red cards0.10league 0.24

Cards 5+80%league 58%

Fouls25.6league 26.8

Penalties0.45league 0.43

Home wins50%league 41%

Estrela3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

L15 Mar 26A · Rio Ave1–22
W7 Feb 26H · Santa Clara1–04
D9 Nov 25H · Nacional1–13

Famalicao1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W16 Aug 25A · Tondela1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.