Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estrela. Estrela had 6 days of rest, Famalicao 5.8 and had to travel 301 km.
Away travel301 kmRest days6 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Estrela36%
Draw26%
Famalicao38%
Estrela31%
Draw26%
Famalicao44%
Estrela36%
Draw26%
Famalicao38%
Estrela29%
Draw26%
Famalicao45%
Estrela37%
Draw26%
Famalicao37%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amadora)
No weather data yet
RefereeVitor Ferreira
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 13
Team strength
Estrela
Famalicao
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
24
AttackIn forecast
24
27
DefenceIn forecast
36
57
Form indexContext
13
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFamalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaFamalicao
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.81
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
100%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.67
ShotsContext
9.00
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
44%
On target shareContext
31%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
4.50
65%
Box shareContext
49%
22%
ConversionContext
6%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.33
13.00
Shots allowedContext
10.50
5.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
2.00
BlocksContext
2.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
65%
Save rateContext
60%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
379
PassesContext
528
310
Accurate passesContext
457
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.33
FoulsContext
12.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.75
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.60
ShotsContext
10.50
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
34%
On target shareContext
35%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.44
67%
Box shareContext
55%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.43
12.60
Shots allowedContext
8.10
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.10
3.50
BlocksContext
2.33
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
62%
Save rateContext
71%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
325
PassesContext
456
257
Accurate passesContext
389
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.10
FoulsContext
12.20
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
DDW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,937 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 57 · 5 pts vs 4.2 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
Famalicao
DLLD
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel301 km3,045 km in 14d
Schedule load16%Low
Form 13 · 2 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -4.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
Famalicao |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 16 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 5.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 301 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,937 km | 3,045 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Confirmed XI
24Léo Linck(G)
55Rafa Soares
5S. Leković
30Luan Patrick
21M. Scholze
71E. Pedro Vanga
39G. Doue
10I. Stoica
14L. Zvonarek
99A. Marcus
37Leandro Antonetti
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
4F. van Breemen
3L. Realpe
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
8Marcos Peña
14M. De Amorim
7Sorriso
19Paulo Moreira
18R. Beney
70G. Koutsias
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estrela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Famalicao · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Estrela wins3 draws1 Famalicao wins
Goals per game0.67 – 0.83
Over 2.533%
Both scored17%
Clean sheets67% · 67%
- 11 May 2026Estrela0–0Famalicao
- 27 Dec 2025Famalicao2–3Estrela
- 25 Jan 2025Famalicao0–0Estrela
- 19 Aug 2024Estrela0–3Famalicao
- 16 Mar 2024Famalicao0–0Estrela
- 29 Oct 2023Estrela1–0Famalicao
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 1.50 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 25% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
| Estrela | Famalicao | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 1.80 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.50 | 8.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.66 | 4.00 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Estrela | Famalicao | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 10.11 | 8.25 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 4.80 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Vitor Ferreira 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 3.85
Red cards0.31league 0.18
Cards 5+62%league 32%
Fouls26.7league 25.5
Penalties0.46league 0.26
Home wins46%league 44%
EstrelaNo previous matches with this referee.
FamalicaoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estrela3 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
76-90
Famalicao4 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
