Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estrela. Estrela had 84.1 days of rest, Sporting CP 84 and had to travel 8 km.
Away travel8 kmRest days84.1 · 84Matches / 14d0 · 0
Estrela11%
Draw17%
Sporting CP72%
Estrela10%
Draw16%
Sporting CP74%
Estrela11%
Draw17%
Sporting CP72%
Estrela8%
Draw14%
Sporting CP79%
Estrela11%
Draw18%
Sporting CP71%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amadora)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Goncalves
- Cards per match 6.5
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 2
Team strength
Estrela
Sporting CP
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
24
AttackIn forecast
75
27
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaSporting CP
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
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—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
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—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.92
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.70
ShotsContext
14.20
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
33%
On target shareContext
37%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
65%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.10
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
5.00
BlocksContext
2.78
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
63%
Save rateContext
75%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
333
PassesContext
526
264
Accurate passesContext
465
79%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.98
13.10
FoulsContext
11.30
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
Rest84.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sporting CP
Rest84 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel8 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 84.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May | 84Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 16 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 8 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Confirmed XI
24Léo Linck(G)
55Rafa Soares
4Bernardo Schappo
30Luan Patrick
21M. Scholze
39G. Doue
78Santiago Serra
10I. Stoica
14L. Zvonarek
99A. Marcus
37Leandro Antonetti
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
50Rodrigo Dias
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
13G. Vagiannidis
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
58Flavio Goncalves
17R. Zalazar
10Geny Catamo
7F. Ioannidis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estrela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
No home games yet this season.
Sporting CP · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Estrela wins0 draws6 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game0.67 – 3.00
Over 2.583%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 11 Apr 2026Estrela0–1Sporting CP
- 30 Nov 2025Sporting CP4–0Estrela
- 29 Mar 2025Estrela0–3Sporting CP
- 1 Nov 2024Sporting CP5–1Estrela
- 29 Mar 2024Estrela1–2Sporting CP
- 5 Nov 2023Sporting CP3–2Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 50% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Estrela | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.90 | 3.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Estrela | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.88 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 10.33 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.60 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Goncalves Portugal · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.50league 4.33
Red cards0.00league 0.33
Cards 5+100%league 33%
Fouls21.5league 23.7
Penalties0.50league 0.00
Home wins0%league 33%
EstrelaNo previous matches with this referee.
Sporting CP1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Aug 25H · FC Porto1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
EstrelaSporting CPEstrela10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
3
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
31-45
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
