Everton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel308 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Everton—%
Draw—%
Bournemouth—%
Weather (Liverpool)
Forecast from 2 Apr
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Everton and Bournemouth. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Bournemouth
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.82xG against1.15
-
Trend
Bournemouth
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Everton
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Bournemouth
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Everton
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Bournemouth
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.82xG against1.15
-
Trend
Bournemouth
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Bournemouth
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Everton
3
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Everton
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Bournemouth
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
EvertonBournemouth
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
61
AttackIn forecast
83
66
DefenceIn forecast
82
50
Form indexContext
74
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EvertonBournemouth
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.52
71%
Scored inContext
86%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.43
ShotsContext
15.14
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.14
35%
On target shareContext
34%
10.83
Shots in the boxContext
9.57
68%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.71
Shots allowedContext
9.57
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
5.00
BlocksContext
2.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
55%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
433
PassesContext
433
361
Accurate passesContext
351
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.80
7.43
FoulsContext
13.00
13.29
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.40
ShotsContext
15.80
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
34%
On target shareContext
32%
9.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
70%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.40
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
5.44
BlocksContext
3.29
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
70%
Save rateContext
61%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
414
PassesContext
434
342
Accurate passesContext
353
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.70
FoulsContext
12.20
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Everton
DDWDL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km573 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
Bournemouth
WLLWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel308 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Everton |
Bournemouth |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Apr | 7Premier League 2026-2027, 10 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 308 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 573 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Everton
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
4J. Branthwaite
6J. Tarkowski
2A. Maitland-Niles
37J. Garner
45H. Armstrong
10J. Grealish
8K. Dewsbury-Hall
34M. Röhl
11T. Barry
Bournemouth
Last XI · not confirmed
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
14António Silva
5J. Hill
15A. Smith
10R. Christie
12T. Adams
16M. Tavernier
4L. Cook
37Rayan
9Evanilson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Everton
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bournemouth
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Everton · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Bournemouth · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Everton | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | L 0–2 H | L 1–5 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Everton wins1 draws5 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game1.11 – 1.33
Over 2.556%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets33% · 22%
- 29 Aug 2026Bournemouth1–1Everton
- 10 Feb 2026Everton1–2Bournemouth
- 2 Dec 2025Bournemouth0–1Everton
- 4 Jan 2025Bournemouth1–0Everton
- 31 Aug 2024Everton2–3Bournemouth
- 30 Mar 2024Bournemouth2–1Everton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Everton | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 3.14 | |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 57% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Everton | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Everton | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 8.57 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.57 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Everton | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 11.34 | 9.20 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.60 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Everton7 games · scored 8 · conceded 7
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Bournemouth7 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
0-15
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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