Everton vs Manchester United – 6 Sep 2026

Premier League Gameweek 3 Sun, Sep 6 · 14:00 Goodison Park, Liverpool

Everton 10th · 4 pts · 2 played WD

2–2Full time

Manchester United 12th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Manchester United were slight favourites.

Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 69). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Manchester United. Everton had 8 days of rest, Manchester United 6.9 and had to travel 50 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel50 kmRest days8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Everton33%

Draw23%

Manchester United44%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.74

Everton34%

Draw26%

Manchester United40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.40

Everton33%

Draw23%

Manchester United44%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.75

Everton26%

Draw22%

Manchester United52%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.95

Everton34%

Draw23%

Manchester United43%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.73

Over 2.5 63% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

21°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 21 km/h
Humidity 59%

RefereeJohn Brooks

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 105

Team strength

Everton

Manchester United

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 82

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

61 AttackIn forecast 72

66 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Manchester United

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Everton

Manchester United

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 3.20

2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

+0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.70

100% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.50 ShotsContext 27.00

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.00

41% On target shareContext 30%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 17.00

61% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.50 OffsidesContext —

14.00 Shots allowedContext 8.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

5.00 BlocksContext 1.00

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

89% Save rateContext 56%

42% PossessionIn forecast 66%

365 PassesContext 608

293 Accurate passesContext 538

80% Pass accuracyContext 89%

7.16 Team ratingContext 6.99

9.50 FoulsContext 8.00

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 2.03

1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.10 ShotsContext 17.20

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

43% On target shareContext 34%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.30

71% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.00 Shots allowedContext 13.30

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

5.56 BlocksContext 4.40

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

65% Save rateContext 71%

43% PossessionIn forecast 50%

366 PassesContext 470

292 Accurate passesContext 395

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.09

11.10 FoulsContext 9.90

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Everton WD

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km617 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 68 · 4 pts vs 2.0 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

D29 AugA · Bournemouth1–10.9 xPts
W22 AugH · Crystal Palace2–01.5 xPts

Manchester United LW

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel50 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 49 · 3 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

W30 AugH · Ipswich5–22.2 xPts
L22 AugA · Hull City0–22.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Everton	Manchester United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Premier League 2026-2027, 29 Aug	6.9Premier League 2026-2027, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	50 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	617 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	4.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 4J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 34M. Röhl

37J. Garner 45H. Armstrong

19T. George 8K. Dewsbury-Hall 22B. Johnson

11T. Barry

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Manchester United Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1S. Lammens(G)

23L. Shaw 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 2Diogo Dalot

18Y. Tielemans 37K. Mainoo

9M. Rashford 8Bruno Fernandes 19B. Mbeumo

10Matheus Cunha

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Everton Absences are shown before kick-off

Manchester United Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Everton+0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Manchester United-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Everton · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

Manchester United · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

2 Everton wins2 draws6 Manchester United wins

Goals per game0.60 – 1.70 Over 2.540% Both scored30% Clean sheets20% · 50%

23 Feb 2026Everton0–1Manchester United
24 Nov 2025Manchester United0–1Everton
22 Feb 2025Everton2–2Manchester United
1 Dec 2024Manchester United4–0Everton
9 Mar 2024Manchester United2–0Everton
26 Nov 2023Everton0–3Manchester United

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Everton	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.50
Conceded per game	0.50	2.00
Match goals	2.00	4.50	3.23
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	50%	63%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	64%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	Everton	Manchester United	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	2.00
Conceded per game	1.60	1.30
Match goals	3.20	3.30	3.23
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	63%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	64%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Everton	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	7.00
Corners conceded	10.00	2.50
Match total	17.00	9.50	9.26
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.50
Match total	3.00	3.50	3.85
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2

	Everton	Manchester United	League
Corners
Corners won	4.78	6.44
Corners conceded	5.89	4.89
Match total	10.67	11.33	9.26
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.20
Opponent cards	1.30	1.70
Match total	3.40	3.90	3.85
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · John Brooks 105 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.37league 3.71

Red cards0.13league 0.04

Cards 5+49%league 32%

Fouls22.5league 23.4

Penalties0.24league 0.18

Home wins53%league 39%

Everton14 with this referee

Record0-6-8 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds1

L17 May 26H · Sunderland1–33
D10 Jan 26H · Sunderland1–11
L4 Jan 25A · Bournemouth0–12
L1 Dec 24A · Manchester United0–43
D26 Oct 24H · Fulham1–11

Manchester United10 with this referee

Record8-2-0 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.6 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

W1 Feb 26H · Fulham3–22
W16 Jan 25H · Southampton3–11
W1 Dec 24H · Everton4–02
D27 Apr 24H · Burnley1–11
W17 Mar 24H · Liverpool4–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.