Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Excelsior
15th · 26 pts · 24 played
DDWLL
First leg0–2
0–1Full time
GO Ahead Eagles
14th · 26 pts · 24 played
DDLLW
Our take
Excelsior were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Excelsior. Excelsior had 9 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 7.2 and had to travel 121 km.
Away travel121 kmRest days9 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Excelsior41%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles32%
Excelsior39%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles33%
Excelsior41%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles32%
Excelsior34%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles39%
Excelsior41%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles32%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 32
Team strength
ExcelsiorGO Ahead Eagles
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
21
AttackIn forecast
29
18
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorGO Ahead Eagles
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.54
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
79%
Scored inContext
83%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
11.04
ShotsContext
11.04
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.09
34%
On target shareContext
44%
7.29
Shots in the boxContext
8.35
65%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.38
OffsidesContext
1.74
15.50
Shots allowedContext
17.92
5.92
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.58
4.29
BlocksContext
6.14
4.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.21
70%
Save rateContext
75%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
388
PassesContext
413
304
Accurate passesContext
339
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.33
FoulsContext
9.29
8.29
Fouls sufferedContext
10.71
1.46
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.30
ShotsContext
12.10
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.75
33%
On target shareContext
38%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.89
74%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.71
14.00
Shots allowedContext
16.00
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.70
BlocksContext
5.30
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
69%
Save rateContext
72%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
431
PassesContext
401
344
Accurate passesContext
327
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.20
FoulsContext
9.90
7.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km282 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel121 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Feb | 7.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 121 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 282 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
3R. Meissen
14L. Schouten
4C. Widell
12A. Zagré
20L. Hartjes
23I. Yegoian
2Ilias Bronkhorst
11G. de Regt
30D. Sanches Fernandes
10N. Naujoks
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
29A. Adelgaard
4J. Kramer
26J. Dirksen
2A. Sampsted
7J. Breum
21M. Meulensteen
18R. Margaret
17M. Suray
10S. Tengstedt
16V. Edvardsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
1.17points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-6
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.33
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
0.67points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-6
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Excelsior | GO Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| NAC Breda | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Twente | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Telstar | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 HL 2–4 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–5 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Groningen | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Heracles | L 1–2 H | W 4–0 HL 2–4 A |
| Heerenveen | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| FC Volendam | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Utrecht | L 1–4 A | D 2–2 H |
| Feyenoord | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–5 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 26 of 69 · 1.13 per game | 23 of 69 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Excelsior wins1 draws1 GO Ahead Eagles wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 26 Oct 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–0Excelsior
- 16 Dec 2023Excelsior1–1GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 1.54 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 3.17 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 17% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Excelsior | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 5.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 5.71 | |
| Match total | 9.46 | 11.13 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 15/24 | 83% 20/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 10/24 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 7/24 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.58 | 1.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.42 | 1.75 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.54 | 3.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 8/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 6/24 | 25% 6/24 | |
| Excelsior | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 11.30 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.70 | 3.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.78league 3.29
Red cards0.06league 0.19
Cards 5+31%league 30%
Fouls23.3league 21.6
Penalties0.16league 0.25
Home wins50%league 45%
Excelsior2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L26 Oct 25A · GO Ahead Eagles0–22
- L22 Oct 23H · PEC Zwolle2–40
GO Ahead Eagles4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D30 Nov 25H · Utrecht2–22
- W26 Oct 25H · Excelsior2–01
- L25 Feb 24A · Twente0–32
- W2 Sep 23H · Heerenveen3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior24 games · scored 26 · conceded 41
6
3
0-15
3
6
16-30
5
7
31-45
1
10
46-60
2
7
61-75
9
8
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles23 games · scored 35 · conceded 39
6
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
10
31-45
4
7
46-60
7
5
61-75
8
9
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
