Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Excelsior were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Excelsior. Excelsior had 21.9 days of rest, Groningen 22.9 and had to travel 202 km.
Away travel202 kmRest days21.9 · 22.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Excelsior47%
Draw23%
Groningen30%
Excelsior42%
Draw26%
Groningen32%
Excelsior47%
Draw23%
Groningen30%
Excelsior39%
Draw24%
Groningen37%
Excelsior47%
Draw23%
Groningen30%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRichard Martens
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 19
Team strength
Excelsior
Groningen
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
21
AttackIn forecast
41
18
DefenceIn forecast
21
46
Form indexContext
23
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGroningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorGroningen
2.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.14
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.15
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
100%
Scored inContext
100%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
10.86
ShotsContext
14.86
4.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.43
41%
On target shareContext
37%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
71%
Box shareContext
63%
20%
ConversionContext
14%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
16.14
Shots allowedContext
15.29
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.71
4.71
BlocksContext
3.67
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.86
71%
Save rateContext
68%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
373
PassesContext
433
292
Accurate passesContext
351
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.00
FoulsContext
8.00
6.43
Fouls sufferedContext
10.43
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
0.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.84
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
100%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.70
ShotsContext
13.50
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
39%
On target shareContext
38%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
66%
Box shareContext
60%
19%
ConversionContext
14%
1.20
OffsidesContext
2.57
15.00
Shots allowedContext
13.90
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.70
BlocksContext
3.22
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
69%
Save rateContext
64%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
375
PassesContext
407
293
Accurate passesContext
323
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.80
FoulsContext
9.20
6.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
WWDLD
Rest21.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 46 · 8 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Groningen
LLDDW
Rest22.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel202 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 23 · 5 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
Groningen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 22.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 18 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 202 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
15Simon Janssen
14J. Plug
4C. Widell
2E. da Silva Moreira
20L. Hartjes
3R. Meissen
8I. Yegoian
30Á. Þorsteinsson
19D. Garden
7Aymen Sliti
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
33H. Hateboer
5M. Rente
3T. Blokzijl
14J. Schreuders
24P. Clement
8T. de Jonge
11J. Ondrejka
26T. van Bergen
17D. van der Werff
9B. Willumsson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Groningen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Groningen+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Groningen · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Excelsior | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 H | L 1–5 A |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Excelsior wins0 draws1 Groningen wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 2 May 2026Groningen2–3Excelsior
- 5 Dec 2025Excelsior0–2Groningen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.14 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 4.00 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 86% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 86% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Excelsior | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 3.90 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 90% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 9.43 | 10.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.43 | 0.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.71 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 2.14 | 2.43 | 2.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 14% 1/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Excelsior | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.00 | 10.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Richard Martens Netherlands · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.84league 2.69
Red cards0.11league 0.06
Cards 5+16%league 11%
Fouls20.3league 21.2
Penalties0.21league 0.20
Home wins47%league 31%
Excelsior1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L4 Oct 25A · Heerenveen1–23
Groningen2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W17 May 26A · Heracles2–10
- L1 Mar 26A · FC Volendam2–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior7 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Groningen7 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
2
4
0-15
2
16-30
7
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
4
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
